With Nick Clegg being compared to Winston Churchill in the Sunday press, it is perhaps time for a bit of calm reflection. Here is one admittedly anecedotal antidote to the 'zero to hero' theme from the BBC: Clegg
Here is another corrective from Sussex University politics lecturer Tim Bale: Bale
Much more scrutiny is now being applied to the Liberal Democrats' policies and some of them don't stand up to much scrutiny. A predominantly Europhobic electorate is also likely to find out they are the most Europhile party, although they have toned that emphasis down in recent years.
What is most worrying about this election campaign is that it is not educating the electorate about the scale of the measures that will be needed once it is over. There will have to be some difficult decisions about tax rises and public spending cuts. The electorate are being given the impression that it can all be dealt with, say, by cutting the number of administrators in the National Health Service.
It can't be and if whatever government is in office is not prepared to do more, the likely consequence is a cut in the UK's debt rating, pushing up the cost of servicing the debt and a run on sterling.
Sunday, 18 April 2010
Friday, 16 April 2010
Yo it's Nick
In my view, and that of all other commentators I have heard, Nick Clegg was the clear winner in last night's leaders' debate. I am not a great fan of Nick Clegg: I think he is rather lightweight. He does not perform well at Prime Minister's Questions, although it is not an easy situation for him as he has to struggle to be heard and as a result can seem to hector. In this format he was much better: he had an opportunity and seized it.
He tried to answer the question that the member of the audience had asked. He also looked at the other leaders when they were speaking. Of course, both of them were aware that they might need his support after a general election, hence the repetition of 'I agree with Nick'. A good point made on Radio 5 this morning was that it's rather like a newly promoted team in the Premiership. They often do well in their first season, or at least the first half of it, because no one knows how to play them. The other leaders will have to work out how to deal with Clegg before the next two debates.
I thought that Dave Cameron's body language was a bit problematic. His facial expression was a mixture of puzzlement and petulance when he wasn't speaking. But his answers were relatively straightforward and clear and focus group evidence suggests that he did well on the subterranean issue of immigration.
I thought that Gordon Brown was stiff and wooden to start with and gave too much detail in his answers. He gained in confidence when he started to talk about the economy and it was here that Dave was in most difficulty in explaining how he was going to pay for everything he planned to do and cut the deficit.
I didn't learn anything new about the stances of the parties and I wonder of 90 minutes may have been long for most voters. It's a shame that members of the audience aren't allowed to come back and say their questions haven't been answered.
There was no deal breaker here between the two main parties. No one made a gaffe or gave a really memorable soundbite. Nick Clegg increased the chances of the Lib Dems holding most of their seats and winning one or two more.
He tried to answer the question that the member of the audience had asked. He also looked at the other leaders when they were speaking. Of course, both of them were aware that they might need his support after a general election, hence the repetition of 'I agree with Nick'. A good point made on Radio 5 this morning was that it's rather like a newly promoted team in the Premiership. They often do well in their first season, or at least the first half of it, because no one knows how to play them. The other leaders will have to work out how to deal with Clegg before the next two debates.
I thought that Dave Cameron's body language was a bit problematic. His facial expression was a mixture of puzzlement and petulance when he wasn't speaking. But his answers were relatively straightforward and clear and focus group evidence suggests that he did well on the subterranean issue of immigration.
I thought that Gordon Brown was stiff and wooden to start with and gave too much detail in his answers. He gained in confidence when he started to talk about the economy and it was here that Dave was in most difficulty in explaining how he was going to pay for everything he planned to do and cut the deficit.
I didn't learn anything new about the stances of the parties and I wonder of 90 minutes may have been long for most voters. It's a shame that members of the audience aren't allowed to come back and say their questions haven't been answered.
There was no deal breaker here between the two main parties. No one made a gaffe or gave a really memorable soundbite. Nick Clegg increased the chances of the Lib Dems holding most of their seats and winning one or two more.
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Facing up to reality
As the Financial Times points out today, there is a big hole in the plans of the political parties to deal with the deficit: Hole
The FT points out that in terms of defined spending cuts, the Conservatives and Labour has each outlined less than £10bn, far less than the minimum £40bn needed in the first three years. There has been much talk of 'efficiency savings', but much vagueness about how these will be secured, particularly on the timescale required. It gives voters the impression that a few bureaucrats in back offices may lose their jobs, but there will be no broader impacts.
As the FT also points out, none of the projections taking account of the likely rising costs of servicing the debt which may well go up by 50 per cent over the period. Social security also faces pressure from rising pensioner numbers.
What no one is saying but is very likely to happen is that VAT will have to go up, at least to 18.5 per cent, if not higher. There should also be serious thought about securing an earlier reduction in the pensionable age.
The FT points out that in terms of defined spending cuts, the Conservatives and Labour has each outlined less than £10bn, far less than the minimum £40bn needed in the first three years. There has been much talk of 'efficiency savings', but much vagueness about how these will be secured, particularly on the timescale required. It gives voters the impression that a few bureaucrats in back offices may lose their jobs, but there will be no broader impacts.
As the FT also points out, none of the projections taking account of the likely rising costs of servicing the debt which may well go up by 50 per cent over the period. Social security also faces pressure from rising pensioner numbers.
What no one is saying but is very likely to happen is that VAT will have to go up, at least to 18.5 per cent, if not higher. There should also be serious thought about securing an earlier reduction in the pensionable age.
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Where are the Liberal Democrats?
We have had a visit from a Conserative canvasser and more than one piece of Labour literature. Labour signboards urging voters to 'Re-elect James Plaskitt' are sprinkled around. Last night we received a piece of campaign literature from the Greens.
But nothing so far from the Liberal Democrats. They are practically invisible. Now it may be that they have decided to concentrate their limited resources on the nearby seat of Solihull where they are defending a narrow majority. That would make tatctical sense.
However, that begs a bigger question. The Liberal Democrats have done reasonably well in local elections, at one time joining governing coalitions on the county and district councils. Admittedly, there are people who would vote for them in a local election but not in a general election. Nevertheless, in constituencies with a not dissimilar demographic to Leamington such as Cheltenham they have built on this to win the parliamentary seat.
Why have they not done this in Leamington? I don't have a straightforward answer, but it may be that the Labour vote in Leamington was too solid for them to chip away at and Labour was able to establish itself as the main challenger to the Conservatives. The Liberals have not managed to take second place away from Labour and build from there. They just managed to come second in the Alliance high tide of 1983, but only with a quarter of the votes.
The contest is essentially one between James Plaskitt and repeat challenger Chris White. That does not mean, however, that the votes for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the Greens will not be important in influencing the outcome.
But nothing so far from the Liberal Democrats. They are practically invisible. Now it may be that they have decided to concentrate their limited resources on the nearby seat of Solihull where they are defending a narrow majority. That would make tatctical sense.
However, that begs a bigger question. The Liberal Democrats have done reasonably well in local elections, at one time joining governing coalitions on the county and district councils. Admittedly, there are people who would vote for them in a local election but not in a general election. Nevertheless, in constituencies with a not dissimilar demographic to Leamington such as Cheltenham they have built on this to win the parliamentary seat.
Why have they not done this in Leamington? I don't have a straightforward answer, but it may be that the Labour vote in Leamington was too solid for them to chip away at and Labour was able to establish itself as the main challenger to the Conservatives. The Liberals have not managed to take second place away from Labour and build from there. They just managed to come second in the Alliance high tide of 1983, but only with a quarter of the votes.
The contest is essentially one between James Plaskitt and repeat challenger Chris White. That does not mean, however, that the votes for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the Greens will not be important in influencing the outcome.
Sunday, 11 April 2010
The constituency of Warwick and Leamington
Continuing our series featuring on the highly marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington, we look at its social make up. In terms of geography, it should be noted that the two towns form one urban area, but with two distinct town centres. The shopping centre of Warwick is very much focused on tourism, something which draws some complaints from locals. Leamington has a well served and attractive town centre, but one that faces retail competition from centres like Solihull.
In the 1970s there used to be a billboard on the outskirts of Leamington proclaiming 'There's a part of Leamington in every car.' Leamington was also known as the brake and clutch capital of Britain and the local football team are still known as the Brakes.
In the run-up to the Second World War, manufacturing industry was decanted out of Birmingham. Leamington became the home to Automotive Products, a specialist manufacturer of brakes and clutches. At one time it employed 6,000 people. Today there are just 200 working for a rump firm.
Another big employer was the Ford Foundry, but that has now closed and its site is awaiting re-development. One or two specialist motor manufacturing firms survive making airport fire engines or refuse collection trucks. Volvo has a substantial office facility in Warwick, but the IBM facility across the road is shuttered.
At one time the gas appliances industry was important and the town was the headquarters of the Society of British Gas Industries. But Pottertons which made boilers has been closed and replaced by a housing estate (where the apartments are not selling too well). However, Aga still operates in the town.
There are plenty of smaller factories, but some of those are downsizing, e.g., a former Heinz factory. Nevertheless, unemployment has been relatively low. When someone visited the town for the first time in many years, they remarked how many Mercedes and other expensive cars there were on the road.
There is what in the 1980s would have been called a 'yuppie' element in Leamington. Down by the old Pottertons site, the old Rock Mill has been converted into some very stylish 'loft' style apartments.
So what do these professionals do? Although the Law Society is phasing out its complaints headquarters in the town as work is transferred to the Legal Ombudsman Service in Birmingham, there are some quite big law firms in Leamington, not least the appropriately named Wright Hassall which has moved into out-of-town premises formerly occupied by the Cheltenham and Gloucester Building Society.
There is quite a lot of public sector employment with the offices of Warwickshire County Council in Warwick and Warwick District Council in Leamington. Many employees at the University of Warwick live in Leamington, particularly on the more up market north side.
There are also some very successful fee-paying schools, of which Warwick School and the Kings school for girls in Warwick are the best known.
However, there are also some areas of real social deprivation, for example parts of Lillington in Leamington but also significant areas of Warwick. The older parts of South Leamington face challenges with drugs. Some of these deprived areas are quite close to more prosperous areas. The town also has quite a strong nighttime economy which leads to tensions with the considerable number of residents who live in the central area.
One of the most interesting areas from an electoral point of view is Whitnash. In effect Whitnash is a suburb of Leamington, but it was at one time part of Warwick Rural District Council and thus has its own town council. The town council, the seats on the district council and the county council seat are controlled by the Whitnash ratepayers led by Bernard Kirton, who at one time in the distant past was a member of the Labour Party. They are very much a 'Whitnash first' party.
Whitnash for a long time functioned as a dormitory suburb for workers at AP close by. Today it has a relatively ageing population, but a predominantly white one. It is the sort of area which probably saw a switch of votes to Labour in 1997, but could be fertile territory for UKIP today.
Leamington has seen successive waves of immigration. In the immediate post-war period it was the Polish and the Irish. In the 1960s there was a small but significant Afro-Caribbean community but that has largely disappeared. The biggest immigrant group is made of Sikhs. The Mayor of Leamington is a Sikh and they recently opened a new gurdwara which cost them £12m to build which they raised themselves. It's an attractive addition to the skyline and I enjoyed a tour of it when it opened. More recently, there has been a wave of Portuguese or Portuguese-speaking immigrants.
For all the waves of immigration, there is still a substantial proportion of the local population who were born in Leamington or in one of the nearby villages. The 'townsmen' as they are known are a social force to be reckoned with.
What this adds up to is a very diverse and heterogeneous constitunecy which in many ways is reflective of modern Britain. It has in many ways a relatively sophisticated electorate which means that it requires the right kind of candidate, particularly for the Conservatives.
As the campaign develops, we shall be looking at the candidates.
In the 1970s there used to be a billboard on the outskirts of Leamington proclaiming 'There's a part of Leamington in every car.' Leamington was also known as the brake and clutch capital of Britain and the local football team are still known as the Brakes.
In the run-up to the Second World War, manufacturing industry was decanted out of Birmingham. Leamington became the home to Automotive Products, a specialist manufacturer of brakes and clutches. At one time it employed 6,000 people. Today there are just 200 working for a rump firm.
Another big employer was the Ford Foundry, but that has now closed and its site is awaiting re-development. One or two specialist motor manufacturing firms survive making airport fire engines or refuse collection trucks. Volvo has a substantial office facility in Warwick, but the IBM facility across the road is shuttered.
At one time the gas appliances industry was important and the town was the headquarters of the Society of British Gas Industries. But Pottertons which made boilers has been closed and replaced by a housing estate (where the apartments are not selling too well). However, Aga still operates in the town.
There are plenty of smaller factories, but some of those are downsizing, e.g., a former Heinz factory. Nevertheless, unemployment has been relatively low. When someone visited the town for the first time in many years, they remarked how many Mercedes and other expensive cars there were on the road.
There is what in the 1980s would have been called a 'yuppie' element in Leamington. Down by the old Pottertons site, the old Rock Mill has been converted into some very stylish 'loft' style apartments.
So what do these professionals do? Although the Law Society is phasing out its complaints headquarters in the town as work is transferred to the Legal Ombudsman Service in Birmingham, there are some quite big law firms in Leamington, not least the appropriately named Wright Hassall which has moved into out-of-town premises formerly occupied by the Cheltenham and Gloucester Building Society.
There is quite a lot of public sector employment with the offices of Warwickshire County Council in Warwick and Warwick District Council in Leamington. Many employees at the University of Warwick live in Leamington, particularly on the more up market north side.
There are also some very successful fee-paying schools, of which Warwick School and the Kings school for girls in Warwick are the best known.
However, there are also some areas of real social deprivation, for example parts of Lillington in Leamington but also significant areas of Warwick. The older parts of South Leamington face challenges with drugs. Some of these deprived areas are quite close to more prosperous areas. The town also has quite a strong nighttime economy which leads to tensions with the considerable number of residents who live in the central area.
One of the most interesting areas from an electoral point of view is Whitnash. In effect Whitnash is a suburb of Leamington, but it was at one time part of Warwick Rural District Council and thus has its own town council. The town council, the seats on the district council and the county council seat are controlled by the Whitnash ratepayers led by Bernard Kirton, who at one time in the distant past was a member of the Labour Party. They are very much a 'Whitnash first' party.
Whitnash for a long time functioned as a dormitory suburb for workers at AP close by. Today it has a relatively ageing population, but a predominantly white one. It is the sort of area which probably saw a switch of votes to Labour in 1997, but could be fertile territory for UKIP today.
Leamington has seen successive waves of immigration. In the immediate post-war period it was the Polish and the Irish. In the 1960s there was a small but significant Afro-Caribbean community but that has largely disappeared. The biggest immigrant group is made of Sikhs. The Mayor of Leamington is a Sikh and they recently opened a new gurdwara which cost them £12m to build which they raised themselves. It's an attractive addition to the skyline and I enjoyed a tour of it when it opened. More recently, there has been a wave of Portuguese or Portuguese-speaking immigrants.
For all the waves of immigration, there is still a substantial proportion of the local population who were born in Leamington or in one of the nearby villages. The 'townsmen' as they are known are a social force to be reckoned with.
What this adds up to is a very diverse and heterogeneous constitunecy which in many ways is reflective of modern Britain. It has in many ways a relatively sophisticated electorate which means that it requires the right kind of candidate, particularly for the Conservatives.
As the campaign develops, we shall be looking at the candidates.
Friday, 9 April 2010
Labour off on wrong foot
The argument about increasing National Insurance has set Labour's election campaign off on the wrong foot. Having a number of CEOs of companies, some of them household names, criticise the policy is not helpful to say the least, particularly given that Labour tried to present itself as 'the natural party of business'. Indeed, it had some initial success in doing so, but there has been growing resentment among business people in recent years about what they see as the growing burden of taxation and regulation.
Labour is trying to recover by saying that the Conservative figures don't add up. This is, however, quite a complicated argument for voters to follow. What is emerging is a more traditional and clearer choice between Labour as a 'tax and spend' party and the Conservatives as a party with a mission to reduce taxes.
Labour is trying to recover by saying that the Conservative figures don't add up. This is, however, quite a complicated argument for voters to follow. What is emerging is a more traditional and clearer choice between Labour as a 'tax and spend' party and the Conservatives as a party with a mission to reduce taxes.
Tuesday, 6 April 2010
Election under way
The election campaign is under way: I have already done three radio and one press interview today. This blog will be following the campaign in the marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington and the picture shows Conservative candidate Chris White campaigning in The Parade, the main shopping street.
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