An incumbency effect?

The conventional wisdom is that personal votes don't count for much in British elections, although they might matter more in Northern Ireland or for incumbent Lib Dem and Nationalist MPs.

However, in the latest Economist Bagehot suggests that it may matter more in the wake of the expenses scandal. 'More than in previous campaigns, it seems, Britons want to know who, precisely, is asking for their vote ... this campaign is uniquely presidential and intensely local.'

James Plaskitt was elected as MP for Warwick and Leamington in 1997. He was educated at Oxford and was a politics lecturer there and at Brunel. He subsequently worked for consultants Oxford Analytica for whom many academics (including myself) undertake work.

He became leader of the Labour group on Oxfordshire County Council and contested the safe Conservative seat of Witney in 1992.

James Plaskitt has been an assiduous constituency caseworker and this is reflected in his campaign literature where he claims to be 'the stronger voice'. A strong Labour loyalist, he was eventually rewarded with a post on the lowest rank of the ministerial ladder as a 'pussy' in Work and Pensions. He was given something of a bed of nails with responsibility for the Child Support Agency and he was eventually let go in a reshuffle. There was some vague talk in one of his columns in the local press about some other post which would require legislation but nothing ever came of it. Some constituents have expressed disappointment to me that a Warwick and Leamington MP has not made a greater impact.

The literature I have seen emphasises the need to 'Secure the Recovery'. On the cover are a picture of the MP with what are presumably two apprentices, emphasising the skills building element of the Labour approach. Most of the internal matter is about the economy and public services, but a constituent also gives a testimony to Plaskitt's hard work. Voters are urged not to let Dave Cameron endanger a fragile recovery.

James Plaskitt has not been tarnished by the expenses scandal. He has issued a series of regular letters to constituents on policy areas in which they are interested, but I found these rather uninspiring. They were essentially long lists of legislative measures undertaken by the Government. Passing a piece of legislation does not solve a problem, indeed one could argue that there is too much legislation and we need to move away from the legislative factory approach (which the EU has tried to do, admittedly with limited success).

I think that voters expect constituency casework as a given these days. Plaskitt has not been high profile enough to generate a big personal vote, but he may pick up some votes from grateful constituents whose problems have been solved. But not many.

Dave in lead as Lib Dems lose big mo

The latest YouGov poll puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems on 28 per cent. This suggests, not surprisingly, that the Lib Dem surge has ended and that it may start to fade, although some of the boost will remain. However, this lead would not be enough to give Dave Cameron an overall majority, although it would create a difficult situation for the Lib Dems after the election. Would they deny office to the party with the largest number of votes and seats?

Tories may fall short by 48 seats

An interesting report here which suggests that the Conservatives will end up as the largest party in the Commons after the general election, but 48 seats short of an absolute majority with the Lib Dems on just under 100 seats: Election

It's a very fluid situation and there's everything to play for. Lib Dem support may turn out to be very soft. But there is a slight touch of panic creeping into statements from some Conservatives with talk of 'two weeks to save the Conservative Party'. The fear is that a hung Parliament could lead to a change in the electoral system which would permanently disadvantage the Conservatives.

Still a 3-way race

Polls following last night's television debate show pretty much a three-way split in terms of who won. Some put Dave Cameron ahead, others put Nick Clegg in front. All of them put Gordon Brown in third place, although he improved his ratings from the previous debate. No one delivered a knockout blow and there is still everything to play for in the last debate.

Dave Cameron was more relaxed and focused than in the previous debate, although sometimes his attempts to sound prime ministerial put him on the sidelines a little. He was probably at his strongest in Europe, although the inability of the Conservatives to deliver a referendum on the Lisbon treaty was a weak point. He also clearly felt a little awkward about some of his allies in the European Parliament. However, he scored some points against Labour making false claims about Conservative policies in leaflets (one of these distributed in Gordon Brown's own constituency according to Alex Salmond later). Brown said that he had not authorised the leaflets and the Conservatives are clearly going to press on this question today.

Nick Clegg held his ground well, gave a confident performance and once again addressed members of the audience more directly than the other two. He was perhaps in greatest difficulty over Trident where Dave Cameron said 'I agree with Gordon' and Gordon Brown urged Clegg to 'get real'. It was not clear what the Lib Dem policy was, other than to have a wide ranging defence review after the election which any party could and should hold. He managed to put Dave under some pressure over immigration by pressing him on what his cap actually was.

Gordon Brown managed to get in his soundbite about Dave being 'a risk to the economy' more than once. He also referred to Cameron's policies being a 'big society at home, little Britain abroad'. (Once again we heard little from Dave about the 'big society' except in his opening statement). Brown's charge that Clegg was 'anti-American', repeated twice, was a little odd: what Clegg is asking for is a different kind of relationship with the United States. At times Brown sounded a bit clunky, as when when he addressed a pensioner questioner on the lines of 'women, and you are a woman.'

One of the trickiest questions was about the Pope's visit to Britain and the failings and policies of the Catholic church. I thought that all three leaders answered this well, but also it was the point when Gordon Brown came across most authentically when he talked about his Presbyterian values. This is much more effective than reciting figures or listing the policies put in place.

The Lib Dems have failed to get the momentum which get them towards 35 per cent in the polls and the chance of winning a really significant number of seats. At the moment Labour is losing the campaign but the Conservatives are not really winning it or brushing off the Lib Dem challenge.

The Lib Dem surge

Is it a shooting star or an asteroid that will wipe out the dinosaur 'old' parties (leaving aside the fact that the Lib Dems have one of the longest histories of any party)? Much depends on the two remaining television debates which will be the defining events of the general election.

I think there will be some slippage as Lib Dem policies become widely known, but most voters are influenced by overall images rather than detailed proposals. However, much of the additional support will be retained. They seem to be doing particularly well among young people so if they can mobilise them to vote overall turnout could go up. It will also be boosted by the closeness of the contest.

The volcanic ash cloud has not contributed to Labour's reputation for competence. Naval aramads have turned out to be one ship and fleets of coaches have proved hard to organised. The Lib Dems could get more votes than them, but far fewer seats.

Dissolution of Parliament

In case you missed the formal announcement, you can watch it here: 59th year of our reign

Gilt edged strike fear

An article in this morning's Financial Times raises the prospect of a gilt edged strike should there be a hung Parliament after the general election: Gilt edged

The markets favour either a Conservative or Labour government with a clear majority over a hung Parliament.