Dave in trouble

Dave Cameron has to make the speech of his life at the Conservative conference today after the latest YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showed that his party's lead over Labour had shrunk to two per cent: Poll

One should not make too much of one poll, and certainly not try to read the result of a general election off it, but there clearly is a trend. One point that emerges is that the 'Bullygate' affair has done Gordon Brown more good than harm. On the whole, voters don't want a wimp in Downing Street. The improved economic figures may also have helped.

Dave Cameron thinks that these polls may help him once voters realise that they are faced with another five years of Gordon Brown. However, voters may decide that they don't want five years of Dave Cameron either and not vote at all or vote for a minor party - where they have plenty of choice. The poll suggests that attacks on Dave's background are starting to make an impact in terms of his empathy with ordinary voters.

It seems to me that Dave's messages are overwhelmingly negative: I'm not Gordon Brown; austerity; broken Britain etc. Instead of engaging in more attacks on Gordon Brown's character he needs to give voters more positive reasons for voting Conservative.

Lack of enthusiasm for Clegg

One of the great imponderables of the election is how many seats the Conservatives will take from the Liberal Democrats. Once elected, Liberal MPs embed themselves well, but some incumbents are retiring. And in many seats newcomers in the constituency exceed the Liberal majority.

The Times has taken a look at some marginal Lib Dem constituencies in the West of England: Knife edge

It's interesting to read some of the vox pop comments about Nick Clegg: 'wet lettuce' and a 'wimp'. I have to say that I thing Clegg singularly unimpressive. And we know that voters' perception of party leaders does count.

Prime monster

This is the headline in the Currant Bun this morning after allegations of bullying in No.10 Downing Street. I heard the rather whiney chief executive of the Bullying Helpline on Radio 5 last night claiming that members of staff there had rung for help. She stated that she was non-political, and no doubt she is, but the whole episode has given her organisation some helpful publicity. Downing Street has requested that details of the complaints be provided, but no doubt this request will be refused on the grounds of confidentiality.

Downing Street is a high pressure environment. People work long hours in physically cramped conditions and have to respond very quickly to rapidly changing events. It is stressful and no doubt staff do feel the sharp edge of the prime minister's tongue from time to time. But one is reminded of Harry Truman's phrase: 'If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.'

All this has, of course, distracted attention from Gordon Brown's campaign slogan launch at Warwick University on Saturday. Sunday's YouGov poll saw the Conservative lead cut to six points, although I am always cautious of reading too much into one poll.

The Sunday Times thought that the cut in Dave Cameron's lead might have something to do with Gordon's rather mawkish television interview last weekend. I think that it has probably more to do with the negative tone of Dave's campaigning: austerity, broken Britain etc. People want some positive messages and some hope for the future.

New votes to seats model

Political betting.com have revised their votes to seats model. This gives the Conservatives a 100 per cent chance of an overall majority with a 7 or 8 point lead, and a 75 per cent chance at 6 per cent: Model

X Marks the Box

An interesting blog here on voting where you can also download a free electronic book on the subject: X Marks the Box

The author was interviewed on Radio 5 yesterday and takes the view that we should exercise our right to vote.

City cash swells Tory war chest

The Conservatives will fight the election on a surge of City cash, according to a Financial Times analysis that shows that donations to the party from the financial sector have more than quadrupled under Dave Cameron's leadership. One would expect donations to increase as an election approaches, if only as a precautionary move to ensure access to decision-makers if needed, but it's an interesting piece of analysis nevertheless: Donations

Interesting choice for Stratford selectorate

The 900 members of Straford upon Avon constituency Conservative association face an interesting choice when they meet to effectively choose the new MP for the South Warwickshire constituency next Friday.

The outgoing MP, John Maples, attracted controversy by advocating all women shortlists as deputy chair of the party. As it so happens, four of those on the shortlist are women, one the daughter of a Conservative MEP and one a former ambassador. Another candidate is the co-founder and chief executive of YouGov who happens to be a British Asian (and one of two candidates who has served on the flagship Conservative council at Wandsworth).

The final candidate, Philip Secombe, is an estate agent, a district councillor and chairman of the constituency association. Will the choice fall to a local man?