Sunday, 28 February 2010

Dave in trouble

Dave Cameron has to make the speech of his life at the Conservative conference today after the latest YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showed that his party's lead over Labour had shrunk to two per cent: Poll

One should not make too much of one poll, and certainly not try to read the result of a general election off it, but there clearly is a trend. One point that emerges is that the 'Bullygate' affair has done Gordon Brown more good than harm. On the whole, voters don't want a wimp in Downing Street. The improved economic figures may also have helped.

Dave Cameron thinks that these polls may help him once voters realise that they are faced with another five years of Gordon Brown. However, voters may decide that they don't want five years of Dave Cameron either and not vote at all or vote for a minor party - where they have plenty of choice. The poll suggests that attacks on Dave's background are starting to make an impact in terms of his empathy with ordinary voters.

It seems to me that Dave's messages are overwhelmingly negative: I'm not Gordon Brown; austerity; broken Britain etc. Instead of engaging in more attacks on Gordon Brown's character he needs to give voters more positive reasons for voting Conservative.

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