A journey along the Red Wall

Interesting focus group report on Red Wall voters: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/understanding-the-red-wall-politics-and-identity-in-the-new-electoral-battlegrounds/

As the report freely admits, the results were affected by the time they were undertaken.  The attachment of new Conservative voters to the party seems to be shallow, but they will not necessarily revert to Labour but may seek another party to support.

There was little understanding of what 'levelling up' meant and scepticism when it was explained.

Why a progressive pact won't work

Convincing arguments from Peter Kellner about why a progressive pact between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens is not going to happen at the next election.  As Kellner puts it, he would like to see Arsenal win the Champions League but that isn't going to happen any time soon either: https://kellnerpolitics.com/2022/01/05/a-labour-lib-dem-green-alliance-to-fight-the-tories-why-it-should-happen-and-why-it-wont/

As he notes towards the end of the article, informal local pacts are possible whereby a party puts up a candidate but doesn't campaign too hard to help the progressive party with the best chance of winning.

Labour voters less likely to get vaccinated

Perhaps counter intuitively, Conservative voters are more likely to get vaccinated against Covid-19 than Labour voters.  Some of this can put down to socio-economic and demographic differences, but there is still an effect after these are controlled for.  Why this should be so is unclear, given that in the US it is Republicans who are less likely to get a jab (and indeed Trump got booed by his own supporters when he revealed that he had had a booster).  It may be that some Labour voters do not trust messages from a Conservative Government: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/conservatives-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-than-labour-supporters/

Inflation was an issue in 1921

With inflation threatening to rise to 6 per cent, there was a cost of living crisis 100 years ago.

The Leamington Spa Courier was preoccupied with the cost of living crisis and high prices in Leamington at the end of October 1921.  ‘It is generally agreed that in Leamington, as elsewhere, the housewife is being charged far too much for meat and other articles of food, and the time has arrived when a substantial drop will have to be made.  People simply cannot afford to pay, and it is a question as to how much longer they will be able to hold out.’

‘That butchers are demanding prices of the average housewife which, when compared with the wholesale charges, are unwarranted, was illustrated at the meeting of the Warwick Joint Hospital Board on Wednesday, when it was reported that good quality was being supplied to the Heathcote Hospital at 1s 6d a lb.  (£3.75 in 2020 prices).  The housewife would be glad to receive similar treatment. It may be argued by the butcher that public institutions get a preference owing to their requiring large quantities, but this cannot apply to Heathcote where there are six patients – the size of an average family. 

It is clear that some butchers are not as desirous of grabbing the last penny as others, and there are shops in Leamington where meat can be had at fairly reasonable prices.  The housewife is advised to seek them out.   Enquiry will soon show, and it it worthwhile – if indeed it is not a public duty to do so.  Bring the butchers into closer competition.   Where prices are obviously too high, why not transfer custom elsewhere?’

The Mayor, Councillor England, intervened in the debate: ‘I feel very strongly so long as the prices of foodstuffs are kept up we cannot expect a drop in the standard of wages, and until we get a fall in wages, we shall continue to have unemployment.’    [1921 saw a severe post-war recession and unemployment was at 11.3 per cent.  After rising by over 15 per cent in 1920, inflation fell in 1921].

‘Mr Leonard Lees of the Master Butcher’s Association was cynical when we told him this morning that the farmers might conceivably help consumers in the fight against high prices by arranging a direct supply.  “They would find there is not so much in it after all,” he said.  “The butchers lost money after control went off, and we had a shocking time for six months.”   The farmer’s point of view is quite reasonable, however, and as a consumer he naturally expects retail prices to bear some relation to what he gets for his cattle in the market.’

‘The failure of retail prices to move in line with producers’ prices costs the consumers 2.25d per lb on his beef, 5d per pound on his mutton, and 2.5d on his loaf.  Or, put in another way, had the consumer benefitted to that extent, the Ministry of Labour cost of living index on October 1^st, instead of being 110 per cent, would have only been 103 per cent above the 1914 level.  At Banbury the fight has had beneficial results.  Yesterday well-fed English mutton was sold at 8d a lb (£1.65 in 2020 prices) and the vendor’s stall was cleared in an hour.   

The reduction in the price of bread in Leamington has come to pass, so that the quarter loaf now cost 11.5d over the counter and one shilling if delivered.  (£2.50 at 2020 prices).   The Birmingham and District Master Bakers’ Association last night decided to reduce the price to 11d at the counter from Monday.  Why cannot Leamington bakers follow suit?

[From the Leamington v. Kettering programme]

Farmer support for Tories slides

Farmers are traditionally Conservative supporters, but a poll for Farmers Weekly shows that support has fallen to 57 per cent with farmers complaining that the Government does not understand their needs and problems.   The main beneficiaries are the Liberal Democrats, although only up to 17 per cent, admittedly more than their current national polling level: https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/farmer-support-for-conservatives-on-the-slide-fw-survey-reveals

Historically large scale farmers have been overwhelming Conservative supporters with some holding posts in their constituency associations.   Smaller scale farmers, particularly in remoter areas, have been more inclined to support the Liberal Democrats and the Nationalist parties.

Could this be a factor in the North Shropshire by-election?

Labour edges ahead in poll

Labour has pulled ahead of the Conservatives in the latest opinion poll and for the first time since he moved to Downing Street, a majority of voters do not think Boris Johnson has what it takes to be a good prime minister.   There has been no personal breakthrough for Keir Starmer, though: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html

Of course, one must be cautious about the results of one poll and a lead that is within the range of sampling error.   However, it does seem that there are many voters who regard the standards row as more than a storm in a Parliamentary teacup as George Eustice tried to suggest over the weekend to the dismay of many in his own party.

It has been pointed out that it would be even more worrying for the Conservatives if sleaze was not the driving factor here.   One note of caution: the fieldwork was done before the Paterson story broke.  It may just be that the Government is running out of good news.

By simple repetition Labour may be able to cut through its narrative of 'Tory sleaze' and 'one rule for them and one for the rest of us.'

How is internal democracy used in NGOs?

Many campaigning organisations are hierarchically organised and give their members limited opportunities for participation.   Their role is seen as providing funds and mobilising to support campaigns.

But if opportunities are available, do members take them?   I recently voted in the elections for the RSPCA board and was informed that only about 20 per cent of members do vote.   I don't have figures for the largest mass membership organisation, the National Trust, but my guess would be somewhat lower, perhaps 15 per cent.

 

In the case of the RSPCA, there were six candidates for three seats with full information about all of them. You have to vote for at least two to avoid 'plumping'.

The National Trust also uses first past the post, but has a recommended slate of candidates, usually retiring members of the Council, although one of them was not chosen this year.  Some members complain that this is undemocratic, but there is usually a very large number of candidates and reading through all the material would take a considerable amount of time.   If an organisation is well run, my inclination is to re-elect.

For the Consumers' Assocation, which is in many respects a commercial organisation, I was presented with five candidates for five seats and could either vote for them, abstain or vote against.   All elections were online.

The National Trust also had several motions for the annual meeting with recommendations on how to vote.   However, members were left to vote how they wished on trail hunting.  Both candidates and motions reflected the present campaign against the Trust's allegedly 'woke' policies, stirred up by The Spectator.  

Often attempts are made to use such democratic procedures as exist by factions with a particular agenda.