Who will voter ID hurt?

Political scientist Phil Cowley gives his views on the voter ID issue: ' It won't be as big a problem as the raw figs appear, because turnout is low anyway and the sort of people who vote in local elections are the sort who will either have ID or go back home to get it.  [I’m not so sure about that].

It will still be a problem, with multiple vox pops with disgruntled voters, and enough to create a storm. These will not all be left-leaning young people either; suspect plenty of pensioners will get caught out.

While I don't personally accept the arguments for voting ID (esp in a country without ID cards), they do not, to many voters, sound outrageous.  This is especially true of the "there are so few cases of it" claim, where the obvious "but how would you know?" retort works.

If the policy isn't changed before the General Election, it will be a much bigger problem then. It won't be changed before the General Election.

I do think this is being driven by perceptions of political advantage, rather than genuine concern about electoral integrity.  My suspicion (and here I really am just guessing) is that it may end up being much messier in partisan terms than people suspect; it would be ironic if lots of Conservative voters got stuffed by it.

It will work in all sorts of ways, including resources going towards ensuring voters have ID, that otherwise would be spent elsewhere. 11. One effect (ironically) might be to drive even more people towards postal votes.'

Can the CBI survive?

The crisis at the CBI has deepened following further disturbing revelations and a number of leading firms have resigned.   They include Aviva, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, John Lewis, Mastercard and Vodafone.

The CBI claims to speak for 190,000 businesses, but the number is boosted by the fact that it has a hybrid membership model made up of individual businesses and trade associations.  Hence it can claim to represent the 46,000 members of the National Farmers' Union.

It is difficult to work out how many individual companies there are in membership, but the Financial Times estimates there are about 700.   These companies pay the bulk of the £20m subscriptions.  It is thought that some companies pay over £100,000 a year.

The CBI has now suspended activities until June, but can it recover?   Who else can speak for business? MakeUK and HospitalityUK effectively represent their sectors.  The Institute of Directors have individual members.   The British Chambers of Commerce are made up of local chambers of varying strength and largely speak for smaller businesses.

If the CBI disappeared, it would have to be reinvented.  Business interests are in many ways divergent, but there are common concerns about macro economic policy such as corporate taxation.   However, a new organisation based on big businesses might lack legitimacy.

The CBI in crisis

The CBI has suspended all its external events including its annual dinner after it deals with allegations of rape, sexual harassment and other misconduct at then organisation.

A number of members have distanced themselves from the CBI, some saying that they are reviewing their membership.   Of course, it could give them a convenient excuse to leave.

The allegations are being investigated by a law firm, but there are deeper structural problems at the voice of British business.

These can be dated back to the late 1960s when it decided to become a de facto Confederation of British Business by admitting retailers and other non-manufacturing firms as full members.  Although that may have boosted income as the manufacturing sector declined, it diluted the CBI's voice as a spokesperson for manufacturing.   That vacuum has been partly filled by MakeUK, formerly the Engineering Employers' Federation.

The CBI reached the peak of its persuasive power in the 1970s as a part of a tripartite arrangement for economic policy.  Its voluntary prices initiative helped to shore up the Heath Government's prices and incomes policy.  The 1974-79 Labour Government often referred to the 'Government, the TUC and the CBI' in the Queen's Speech.

As far as Mrs Thatcher was concerned, the CBI was a relic of harmful corporatism and its influence waned.  It did recover some ground under the Major Government and New Labour, but government increasingly consulted directly with leading firms, sometimes formalised in business advisory councils.

With business being overwhelmingly remain, Boris Johnson had little time for their views as he expressed with an expletive.  

Weathering this crisis and remaining a credible voice of business is going to be challenging.

Farmer support for Conservatives falls

Farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in living memory.  A survey by Farmers Weekly shows that just 42 per cent would vote Conservative if there was a general election tomorrow.

This compares with 57 per cent who said they would vote Conservative a year ago and 72 per cent in 2020.

Those farmers leaving the Conservatives are split almost equally between Labour and Liberal Democrats, each attracting 23 per cent of the farming vote.

In Scotland 38 per cent backed the Conservatives, followed by the SNP at 30 per cent.   In Wales 44 per cent said they would vote Conservative.   Labour and the Liberal Democrats got 19 per cent each and Plaid Cymru 15 per cent.

Owner occupiers were more strongly Conservative at 56 per cent, but their support among tenant farmers was just 22 per cent.   This group preferred the Liberal Democrats.

If these trends continue, they will not help in blue wall seats vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats.  Apart from farmers, there are many contractors and suppliers who depend on agricultural prosperity.

Streamlined monarchy will be able to do less

Somewhat to his surprise, Robert Hazell appeared in the Netflix documentary on Harry and Meghan.  With his co-author he reflects on modern monarchy and points out that a streamlined Royal Family we be able to do less, creating an expectations management issue: https://theconversation.com/netflixs-harry-and-meghan-the-sussexes-are-not-unique-in-being-royal-victims-196738

Voters up for grabs

Rob Ford provides five lessons from the last election: https://swingometer.substack.com/p/5-lessons-from-the-last-election?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

He notes: 'Whatever comes next, there are more voters in play than ever. Traditional partisan alignments have been fading for decades, and the Leave and Remain tribal attachments forged in 2016 may also be losing their hold with Brexit off the agenda. Two of the three most volatile elections in modern history have come in the past decade, with almost half of voters switching sides at least once between 2010-17. '

What a state we're in

There are some great insights in this very well written review of the political year.  Sunak is described as an 'interim CEO coming in to manage a bankruptcy.'  Truss is described as offering 'Ladybird-style Thatcherism'.  The Government has been 'plagued by a profound incoherence'.   The underlying message is that we are in a parlous state, yet Labour has no plan for government: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/this-government-is-dying-what-comes-next-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer