Clacton does not reflect the country as a whole

Conducting a poll in by-election with 34 candidates is not easy, but what we have suggests that Nigel Farage will win 60-70 per cent of the vote in Clacton, but on a smaller turnout.  Whether beating someone dressed as a garbage can is a triumph is another matter.   Voters there may well get a chance in the autumn to choose between the normal political parties.

It appears that constituents don't care that Farage carries out none of the duties of a constituency MP which would cause a storm in most seats.

I thought it would be interesting to compare Clacton's demographics with those of GB as a whole and my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington.   We recently had a town council by-election in my own ward (Royal Clarendon).   The Greens won, with the Lib Dems just behind and Labour in touching distance.   The Conservatives were way behind and Reform didn't stand.

33 per cent of Clacton voters have what is described as a good education.  The figure is 51 per cent nationally and 62 per cent in W & L.  Gross household income is £33,147 in Clacton, £42,397 nationally and £46,828 in the Royal Spa and Warwick.   Deprivation is indexed at 64 per cent in Clacton, 51 per cent nationally and 43 per cent in my neck of the woods.

The mean age in Clacton is 56.6, as against 49.8 nationally and 47.6 in W & L.  Clacton is 96 per cent ethically white compared with 83 per cent nationally and 82 per cent in W & L.  We have a large Sikh community and have had a Sikh mayor  In addition, there is a large Portuguese speaking population, many of them Brazilians.   Areas which have very few ethnic minorities tend to be most concerned about immigration as an issue.

It's interesting that voters who clearly have many economic challenges think that a party backed by billionaires is going to help them surmount then,

Why did Labour hold Warwick and Leamington?

On a bad night for Labour, they managed to see off a Conservative challenge in the highly marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington with a swing against them of just 0.79 per cent. How can this be explained?

I have lived in Leamington for forty-five years. I have seen Conservative and Labour MPs come and go: first Sir Dudley Smith (there had been a Conservative MP since 1910) defeated in the Labour landslide of 1997 by James Plaskitt, who in turn was defeated by Chris White in 2010 (he had been narrowly defeated in 2005). Then in 2017 Chris White was replaced on an above average swing by Matt Western, a county councillor.

Western's victory came as something of a surprise to him, so I am told. Another reliable source told me that last weekend he thought he was toast. He has been a hard working and effective constituency MP, but so was his predecessor, Chris White. Personal votes are not normally that large and the term at Warwick University had ended the preceding week, denting the student vote. Nevertheless, turnout at over 70 per cent was above the national average.

The Economist interviewed me over lunch and showed me their constituency poll which showed Conservative Jack Rankin one point ahead which, given the sample size, was well within the range of sampling error. The one quote they used from me was about the Countess of Warwick standing against Sir Anthony Eden as the Labour candidate in 1923 and campaigning from her chauffeur driven Rolls Royce.

I have not been able to find out the age of the Conservative candidate, Jack Rankin, anywhere but apparently he was the most youthful member of Windsor District Council. On his literature, the Warwick masters graduate and commodities trader looked very young indeed. Whether this influenced any voters one way or another is a matter of speculation.

One knowledgeable person observed to me, 'No mention of Corbyn in his literature and very little indication that he was actually Labour just the incumbent running for re-election. But then my one time student Vernon Coaker followed a similar strategy in Gedling. It has helped him hold the seat against the odds in the past, but this time he lost, albeit on a smaller than average swing for the East Midlands.

Given the sort of seat it is, one might expect the Liberal Democrats to do better, particularly given that they have quite a strong local government presence. They generally finish a poor third, but increased their share of the vote this time.

Warwick and Leamington was a Remain constituency, as far as I can recall the only one in the West Midlands. I suspect that the Midlands political correspondent, Patrick Burns, was one to something when he said at the last election was that it was like a North London seat, set in the middle of Warwickshire. Indeed, some of it looks like North London.

The Conservatives West Midlands website said that winning the seat back was a must if they were to have a majority in the Commons. With the Red Wall crumbling, they easily obtained a big majority anyway.

An unexpected result

I hadn't expected Labour to gain Warwick and Leamington. Indeed, it was the only Labour gain in the West Midlands where the Conservatives gained two seats.

There are over 5,000 students in the constituency and no doubt they played a part in the outcome. The constituency voted 'Remain' in the referendum and although outgoing MP Chris White was a remainer, it would seem that many of those who voted remain chose Labour as happened elsewhere.

What is clear is that the constituency is not a typical Midlands one. BBC West Midlands political correspondent Patrick Burns suggested that it is more like a North London constituency with a metropolitan, cosmopolitan outlook.

Labour's moderate pitch

I have now received the Labour and Liberal Democrat election leaflets for Warwick and Leamington. The cover photo of the Labour manifesto is initially a little puzzling as it contains a picture of two men, but it is not clear which of them is the candidate. However, turning over the page it is apparent that one is a 'local folding bike inventor.' Perhaps the subtle message here is that Jeremy Corbyn should get on his bike.

For there is no picture of Jezza or mention of his name. The overall message is that the candidate, county councillor Matt Western, is a moderate. He is pictured with a local business owner (a greengrocer) and reference is made to his 24 years of management experience with Peugeot. The candidate also makes it clear that he doesn't support Brexit in a constituency that voted Remain.

Nick Solman's leaflet emphasises the dangers of 'extreme hard Brexit'. There is a prominent photo of unimpressive leader Tim Farron. The candidate himself is photographed in front of the Pump Rooms and Warwick Castle.

Warwick and Leamington is a constituency that should have some potential for the Lib Dems, but they have never come close to realising it. For the Lib Dems more generally, only 7 per cent of the electorate voted Remain and select Brexit as their most important issue.

Emphasis on the local

I now have the election address of Chris White, seeking re-election as Conservative MP for Warwick and Leamington. The main emphasis is on what he has achieved locally, which is reasonable enough given that he has been an energetic and conscientious MP. He pledges, 'I remain as determined as I was when I was first elected to address local issues, building on the experience I have gained.'

There is a certain amount about his select committee work and other issues he has pursued in Parliament. Referring to his service on the International Development Select Committee, he states that he is a 'strong advocate for 0.7% of GNI protected for aid funding', not something that every candidate would emphasise.

Theresa May is only mentioned in relation to the fact that he served as her PPS when she was in the Home Office. 'Conservatives' appears in small print, certainly smaller than the various references to 'Chris White'.

What is completely absent is any reference to Brexit. Chris White was a remainer, but then had to follow the party line. However, we are left with no idea how he would react to a hard Brexit and what he thinks about 'no deal is better than a bad deal.'

One hint of dissent is that 'I understand concerns about school funding and will be campaigning for more support.'

Male only choice in Warwick & Leamington

As in the 2015 general election, I will be following the local constituency battle in Warwick & Leamington. This could be the last contest in Sir Anthony Eden's old seat, as proposed boundary changes would put the two towns which are contiguous into different constituencies, much to the annoyance of locals. (Warwickshire is to lose one seat).

The seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010. At the last election the Conservatives received 47.9 per cent of the vote, up 5.1 per cent. Labour held almost steady at 34.9 per cent and the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed to 5 per cent with UKIP picking up a little over 8 per cent.

Jeremy Corbyn visited the constituency during the week and a Labour tweet referred to it as 'Royal Leamington Spa'. He attracted a crowd of around 500, but many of them were students.

Retiring Conservative MP Chris White is standing again. In one of the few West Midlands constituencies to vote for 'Remain' in the referendum, he was a remainer. He is regarded as an energetic local MP.

Mick Western, a recently re-elected county councillor in Leamington, is the Labour candidate. Jonathan Chilvers, who holds a county council side on the south side of Leamington, is the Green candidate. Nick Soloman, a relative political novice, is standing for the Liberal Democrats. Former Warwick mayor Bob Dhillon is standing for UKIP to give Brexiteers an alternative to Chris White.

Voters will thus have to choose from an all male list.

The general election in the Heart of England

I discuss the prospects for the general election in Warwickshire here: Heart of England

Chris White rebels

Looking through the list of MPs who voted against the Coalition Government on Syria, I found my own MP from Warwick and Leamington, Chris White. He has, of course, rebelled before on HST2, but this is an issue that profoundly affects his constituents. By doing so he may well have any chances of preferment, even as a private parliamentary secretary.

The vote on Syria is significant because I would regard White as a Cameron loyalist. It does reflect the extent to which the Government got itself into a mess on this issue, particularly through a poorly conducted whipping operation and the absence of ministers 'discussing Rwanda'. It will be interesting to see how Chris White explains his actions, not that I think he was wrong to vote the way he did. If you are going to conduct a military action, you need clear objectives and you need to be confident that your action will actually achieve them.

Chris White has explained his vote here: Chris White

Chris White wins

Chris White has won Warwick and Leamington with a majority of 3,500, a massive 8.8 per cent swing from Labour to Conservative. His majority is much bigger than I forecast. It reflects all the hard work he has put in since losing in 2005. Now that the result is out, I can also say that some time ago I picked up a sense that James Plaskitt had given up.

The turnout was a massive 84 per cent.

I have just seen David Butler on the BBC election progamme talking about electoral systems on which he wrote his PhD and his first book.

Pound and shares slump

The pound and shares have slumped as fears grow that the election results have not produced an outcome that will sustain a government that can take decisive measure to deal with the budget deficit. The UK could face a worsening crisis.

Many of the remaining seats are Conservative ones, but Dave will probably fall short of an overall majority. The Clegg bubble has burst, yet Nick Clegg could still be kingmaker. One thing that he has to bear in mind is that he could lose even more seats in an early election.

The contest in Warwick and Leamington, which we have been following and is yet to declare, assumes an even greater importance.

I think that Dave will eventually be able to form a minority government, but it will be constrained in what it can done. It may make for interesting politics, but I am not sure it is what we need in an economic crisis.

Who will win in Warwick and Leamington?

The visit of Gordon Brown today emphasises the importance of this ultra marginal. A recent MORI poll of 57 Labour-Conservative marginals shows the two parties tied at 36 per cent with the Lib Dems on 20 per cent.

There aren't that many special local factors in the constituency, even though local issues have featured in the campaign. The incumbent MP, James Plaskitt, has been an assiduous enough constituency MP, but is not a political high flyer. Any incumbency factor may have been offset by the vigorous and long-term campaign mounted by Chris White for the Conservatives.

Given their lack of presence in the constituency, and the fact that it is a Conservative-Labour marginal means that the Liberal Democrats are likely to poll below their national vote share.

The Labour majority was 266 in 2005, but the transfer of three predominantly Conservative wards to the new Kenilworth and Southam constituency gives a notional Labour majority of 4,393. There would need to be a swing to the Conservatives from Labour of over 5 per cent for them to win the seat. If they did, it would mean a slender Conservative overall majority, but because there will not be uniform national swing, they could win the seat and not have an overall majority.

I will be on the plane to the States on Thursday and my vote has already been cast. Will Chris White be on a Chiltern Railways train to London on Friday afternoon with a piece of his election literature to prove that he is the new member for Warwick and Leamington? Or will James Plaskitt resume his duties? I am genuinely uncertain, but the local Conservatives appear to be quietly confident. So my guess is a majority of 828 for Chris White.

Chris White, Conservative

In the last of the candidate profiles for Warwick and Leamington, we look at the Conservative candidate, Chris White, who fought the seat unsuccessfully in 2005.

If one wanted a carcicature of a totally unsuitable Conservative candidate for Warwick and Leamington it would be someone in a union jack waistcoat who was obsessed with the Common Fisheries Policy (Leamington is about as far as you can get from the sea in England).

I have had the opportunity to have a number of long conversations with Chris White over the past year and he is the opposite of such a person. He is a cerebal, thoughtful person who is prepared to listen to alternative views, although, of course, he is a genuine Conservative in his values and principles. He is also a very dynamic and energetic individual with an interesting background.

He was educated at a comprehensive school and took a MBA after his first degree in engineering. He then went to work in the motor industry with MG Rover so he is one of those relatively rare candidates who has a manufacturing industry background.

Chris White has embedded itself him in the local community. Living in Warwick, he has served as a local councillor and school governor and involved himself in local charitable and voluntary activities. In the months leading up to the campaign, he has been talking to groups such as teachers and health care professionals. He has also campaigned against local fire station closures, although ironically this plan was put forward by the Conservative controlled county council.

While highighting the 'jobs tax' and safeguarding the NHS, his campaign literature contains quite a lot of emphasis on local issues such as protecting allotments and preventing over development.

The person he most admires is President Obama and the person he would like least to be stuck in a lift with is Nick Griffin. What makes him most angry is discrimination of any kind.

Dave Cameron said the other day that he is a 'one nation' Conservative and Chris White comes across as such a person. He would be an effective constituency MP with the potential for ministerial office and would not be a supporter of extremist policies or reducing front line public service.

This is a general election and voters are choosing a government as well as a MP. But the Conservatives have chosen an effective candidate who is well in tune with the constituency he seeks to represent.

Minor party votes could be important

In what is still a tight contest in Warwick and Leamington, the votes attracted by minor parties could be decisive. Last time they attracted 5.1 per cent of the votes.

My sense of the campaign as a whole, in England at any rate, is that the rise of the Liberal Democrats has blotted out some of the attention that might otherwise have been given to minor parries.

The internal contradictions of BNP policies were exposed when their leader was interviewed on the Campaign Show last night. It doesn't look as if they will win in Barking. The anti-BNP organisation Searchlight thinks their best chance is in Stoke where there has been a local Labour Party split in one of the seats.

I think that the Speaker will hold off Nigel Farrage's challenge for UKIP in Buckingham. I am sceptical whether the Greens will take Brighton (Pavilion).

In Warwick and Leamington, Ian Davison is standing again for the Greens. He has polled respectably in county council elections and some students may support him. I have had two pieces of campaign literature from him which strike a more moderate and reasonable note than some of the statements of the national party. I would forecast a low four figure vote. The interesting question is whether will come ahead of UKIP whose candidate has been parachuted in from Staffordshire.

An independent living in Warwick, Jim Cullinane, is on the ballot paper. Holding a masters' degree in third world politics, he appears to be an anti-politics candidate who states 'This is your opportunity to say "none of the above" without spoiling your ballot paper.' He takes a relatively libertarian line with opposition to excessive regulation. I would expect him to get no more than a few hundred votes.

Sam Cam in town

The importance of the Warwick and Leamington constituency to the Conservatives has been demonstrated by a number of visits by top Tories. But today Conservative candidate Chris White topped it off with a belated birthday present with a visit by Samantha Cameron. Sam visited allotments in Whitnash, a crucial swing area.

In the last of our candidate profiles, we will be looking at Chris White in the next day or two.

The Liberal Democrats surface

At last we have received a piece of election literature from the Liberal Democrats. Also, our next door neighbours have put up a Liberal Democrat signboard, the first one I have seen. It says something about the nature of their campaign in Warwick and Leamington that it does not have the candidate's name on it.

In their leaflet they try to big up their chances by suggesting that the last county council election results show that the contest could be a close finish between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, but votes in a secondary election of that kind are no guide to a general election result. One could show similar results before 2001 and 2005 and the Lib Dems still came third.

The leaflet contains one picture of Nick Clegg and one of Clegg with Saint Vince of Cable. The candidate, Alan Beddow, emphasises that he is 'one of us', a local man, although he is not a 'townsman' as he is only lived in the area for 15 years. He promises to 'put local people first'. It would be odd if he put them second or pledged to be secretive and deceitful about his expenses rather than 'open and honest'.

He makes a great deal, as do all three candidates, about proposed fire service cuts which would involve the closure of Warwick fire station. They certainly are a major local issue as they came up on the BBC Midlands TV panel debate in the constituency. All three candidates are against them, but none can directly affect the decision as it rests with the Conservative controlled county council.

Another local issue mentioned is protecting the green belt against developers, while it is argued that 'Our NHS' is 'at risk with the Conservatives'. The candidate is pictured with a nurse at Warwick Hospital and an unspecified person who could well be one of the dread health service administrators (whose wages only account for 3 per cent of the NHS budget).

I didn't think the leaflet was as well designed as those of Conserative or Labour: it was over crowded with too much information.

What is interesting is whether the lack of any substantial Liberal Democrat campaign in the constituency will undermine their local vote. National poll evidence suggests that the Lib Dem vote is softer than that of the two main parties and more reliant on younger voters who tend to be less reliable in terms of turning up and voting (despite a late surge in registration).

An incumbency effect?

The conventional wisdom is that personal votes don't count for much in British elections, although they might matter more in Northern Ireland or for incumbent Lib Dem and Nationalist MPs.

However, in the latest Economist Bagehot suggests that it may matter more in the wake of the expenses scandal. 'More than in previous campaigns, it seems, Britons want to know who, precisely, is asking for their vote ... this campaign is uniquely presidential and intensely local.'

James Plaskitt was elected as MP for Warwick and Leamington in 1997. He was educated at Oxford and was a politics lecturer there and at Brunel. He subsequently worked for consultants Oxford Analytica for whom many academics (including myself) undertake work.

He became leader of the Labour group on Oxfordshire County Council and contested the safe Conservative seat of Witney in 1992.

James Plaskitt has been an assiduous constituency caseworker and this is reflected in his campaign literature where he claims to be 'the stronger voice'. A strong Labour loyalist, he was eventually rewarded with a post on the lowest rank of the ministerial ladder as a 'pussy' in Work and Pensions. He was given something of a bed of nails with responsibility for the Child Support Agency and he was eventually let go in a reshuffle. There was some vague talk in one of his columns in the local press about some other post which would require legislation but nothing ever came of it. Some constituents have expressed disappointment to me that a Warwick and Leamington MP has not made a greater impact.

The literature I have seen emphasises the need to 'Secure the Recovery'. On the cover are a picture of the MP with what are presumably two apprentices, emphasising the skills building element of the Labour approach. Most of the internal matter is about the economy and public services, but a constituent also gives a testimony to Plaskitt's hard work. Voters are urged not to let Dave Cameron endanger a fragile recovery.

James Plaskitt has not been tarnished by the expenses scandal. He has issued a series of regular letters to constituents on policy areas in which they are interested, but I found these rather uninspiring. They were essentially long lists of legislative measures undertaken by the Government. Passing a piece of legislation does not solve a problem, indeed one could argue that there is too much legislation and we need to move away from the legislative factory approach (which the EU has tried to do, admittedly with limited success).

I think that voters expect constituency casework as a given these days. Plaskitt has not been high profile enough to generate a big personal vote, but he may pick up some votes from grateful constituents whose problems have been solved. But not many.

Where are the Liberal Democrats?

We have had a visit from a Conserative canvasser and more than one piece of Labour literature. Labour signboards urging voters to 'Re-elect James Plaskitt' are sprinkled around. Last night we received a piece of campaign literature from the Greens.

But nothing so far from the Liberal Democrats. They are practically invisible. Now it may be that they have decided to concentrate their limited resources on the nearby seat of Solihull where they are defending a narrow majority. That would make tatctical sense.

However, that begs a bigger question. The Liberal Democrats have done reasonably well in local elections, at one time joining governing coalitions on the county and district councils. Admittedly, there are people who would vote for them in a local election but not in a general election. Nevertheless, in constituencies with a not dissimilar demographic to Leamington such as Cheltenham they have built on this to win the parliamentary seat.

Why have they not done this in Leamington? I don't have a straightforward answer, but it may be that the Labour vote in Leamington was too solid for them to chip away at and Labour was able to establish itself as the main challenger to the Conservatives. The Liberals have not managed to take second place away from Labour and build from there. They just managed to come second in the Alliance high tide of 1983, but only with a quarter of the votes.

The contest is essentially one between James Plaskitt and repeat challenger Chris White. That does not mean, however, that the votes for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the Greens will not be important in influencing the outcome.

The constituency of Warwick and Leamington

Continuing our series featuring on the highly marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington, we look at its social make up. In terms of geography, it should be noted that the two towns form one urban area, but with two distinct town centres. The shopping centre of Warwick is very much focused on tourism, something which draws some complaints from locals. Leamington has a well served and attractive town centre, but one that faces retail competition from centres like Solihull.

In the 1970s there used to be a billboard on the outskirts of Leamington proclaiming 'There's a part of Leamington in every car.' Leamington was also known as the brake and clutch capital of Britain and the local football team are still known as the Brakes.

In the run-up to the Second World War, manufacturing industry was decanted out of Birmingham. Leamington became the home to Automotive Products, a specialist manufacturer of brakes and clutches. At one time it employed 6,000 people. Today there are just 200 working for a rump firm.

Another big employer was the Ford Foundry, but that has now closed and its site is awaiting re-development. One or two specialist motor manufacturing firms survive making airport fire engines or refuse collection trucks. Volvo has a substantial office facility in Warwick, but the IBM facility across the road is shuttered.

At one time the gas appliances industry was important and the town was the headquarters of the Society of British Gas Industries. But Pottertons which made boilers has been closed and replaced by a housing estate (where the apartments are not selling too well). However, Aga still operates in the town.

There are plenty of smaller factories, but some of those are downsizing, e.g., a former Heinz factory. Nevertheless, unemployment has been relatively low. When someone visited the town for the first time in many years, they remarked how many Mercedes and other expensive cars there were on the road.

There is what in the 1980s would have been called a 'yuppie' element in Leamington. Down by the old Pottertons site, the old Rock Mill has been converted into some very stylish 'loft' style apartments.

So what do these professionals do? Although the Law Society is phasing out its complaints headquarters in the town as work is transferred to the Legal Ombudsman Service in Birmingham, there are some quite big law firms in Leamington, not least the appropriately named Wright Hassall which has moved into out-of-town premises formerly occupied by the Cheltenham and Gloucester Building Society.

There is quite a lot of public sector employment with the offices of Warwickshire County Council in Warwick and Warwick District Council in Leamington. Many employees at the University of Warwick live in Leamington, particularly on the more up market north side.

There are also some very successful fee-paying schools, of which Warwick School and the Kings school for girls in Warwick are the best known.

However, there are also some areas of real social deprivation, for example parts of Lillington in Leamington but also significant areas of Warwick. The older parts of South Leamington face challenges with drugs. Some of these deprived areas are quite close to more prosperous areas. The town also has quite a strong nighttime economy which leads to tensions with the considerable number of residents who live in the central area.

One of the most interesting areas from an electoral point of view is Whitnash. In effect Whitnash is a suburb of Leamington, but it was at one time part of Warwick Rural District Council and thus has its own town council. The town council, the seats on the district council and the county council seat are controlled by the Whitnash ratepayers led by Bernard Kirton, who at one time in the distant past was a member of the Labour Party. They are very much a 'Whitnash first' party.

Whitnash for a long time functioned as a dormitory suburb for workers at AP close by. Today it has a relatively ageing population, but a predominantly white one. It is the sort of area which probably saw a switch of votes to Labour in 1997, but could be fertile territory for UKIP today.

Leamington has seen successive waves of immigration. In the immediate post-war period it was the Polish and the Irish. In the 1960s there was a small but significant Afro-Caribbean community but that has largely disappeared. The biggest immigrant group is made of Sikhs. The Mayor of Leamington is a Sikh and they recently opened a new gurdwara which cost them £12m to build which they raised themselves. It's an attractive addition to the skyline and I enjoyed a tour of it when it opened. More recently, there has been a wave of Portuguese or Portuguese-speaking immigrants.

For all the waves of immigration, there is still a substantial proportion of the local population who were born in Leamington or in one of the nearby villages. The 'townsmen' as they are known are a social force to be reckoned with.

What this adds up to is a very diverse and heterogeneous constitunecy which in many ways is reflective of modern Britain. It has in many ways a relatively sophisticated electorate which means that it requires the right kind of candidate, particularly for the Conservatives.

As the campaign develops, we shall be looking at the candidates.

Election under way

The election campaign is under way: I have already done three radio and one press interview today. This blog will be following the campaign in the marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington and the picture shows Conservative candidate Chris White campaigning in The Parade, the main shopping street.

Our election coverage

As has been promised before, this blog will follow the campaign in Warwick and Leamington. This is a key constituency: if the Conservatives win it, they will have an overall majority of 2. It is therefore a 'must win' constituency for them, something emphasised by the recent visit of David Cameron.

Up until the 1966 general election, the Nuffield election studies of each general election used to have constituency case studies. They were dropped in favour of more analytical material, and arguably they had become rather superficial. Nevertheless, there is an interest in following the campaign from the perspective of a particular constituency. Rather than being retro, it gives a 'bottom up' perspective on the national campaign.

The broad plan of attack will be as follows. We will start by reviewing the history of the constituency which is quite unusual given the role of the Countess of Warwick as the first Labour candidate and the long tenure of Sir Anthony Eden in what became known as the 'Garden of Eden'.

Subsequently, we will look at the demographics and composition of the constituency. Despite the 'Royal Spa' image, historically Leamington and Warwick were manufacturng towns with an emphasis on the motor industry. They were broadly prosperous communities, but they had and have substantial pockets of real deprivation.

I have lived in Leamington for 35 years, but I am not a 'townsman', someone born and bred in Leamington. The numbers of such people are higher than one might think. It is quite a heterogeneous and unusual place and I wouldn't claim that I understand it fully.

At a later stage, when they are known for certain, we will look at the candidates. The contest is interesting in that it involves a re-match between sitting Labour MP (since 1997) James Plaskitt and Conservative challenger Chris White. There will certainly be Liberal Democrat and Green candidates, almost certainly UKIP and possibly BNP. In a close fought contest, the share of the vote taken by these candidates could be significant.

We will also be following the campaign. In one sense, that has already begun. For example, this week Chris White has revealed through Facebook that he has been discussing Conservative proposals for the NHS with local health service professionals as part of a broader outreach effort to various groups in the community.

As for the electorate, they are probably preoccupied at the moment with the icy conditions on the streets and pavements and the interruptions to services such as refuse collection. Even in such a marginal constituency, perhaps a third of them will not vote at all, reflecting in part a disllusionment with the political process.

I have recorded a podcast on the (national) election which will be available in a week or two. I did refer to James Callaghan's remark before the 1979 election that every so often there is a sea change in politics which one can't do much about. In 1979 the Conservative secured office for 18 years, helped in part by disarray in the opposition for much of that time. Labour will have been in office for almost 12 years by the time of the election and it took some time for the Conservatives to get their act together as a credible opposition.

One must be careful of assuming, however, that long tenures in office are necessarily typical. Between 1959 and 1979 we had a Conservative government, then Labour, then the Conservatives again, then a Labour government which eventually became dependent on other parties to stay in office (before it was brought down by a usually absent independent 'abstaining in person'). There were four elections in the 1970s and that turbulent period has some parallels with today.

In any event for anyone interested in politics it will not be a boring election, not least in a constituency at the heart of England.