This is not an American politics blog, but it is interesting to compare the predictions made at the forecasting panel held at this year's American Political Science Association conference in Boston Ma. in August with the outcome.
All but one of the panelists (allegedly a Republican) forecast a victory for Obama, although three of them with substantially larger shares of the popular vote. With some votes apparently still to be tallied, Obama's share is currently running at 52.4 per cent. The nearest forecast was the economic indicators model at 52.2 per cent.
Perhaps it was a case of 'the economy, stupid?'