Sunday, 7 February 2010

Beware of the uniform national swing

Justin Greaves has drawn to my attention an interesting piece which underpins the argument advanced here that the Conservatives might expect to do better in key marginals than the uniform national swing might suggest:

A follow up piece here suggest that a Conservative lead of 5 to 6 per cent could be enough for an overall majority: Lead I'm not sure I agree with that, but read the reasoning for yourself.

A slight easing of the Conservative lead in the latest poll led to excitable media speculation (as reported by Radio Scilly) about the election being called earlier than expected. The real lead hasn't changed that much, although a 2 per cent improvement in the performance of the Liberal Democrats could be significant.

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