How constituencies change over time

I had the following letter published in the Financial Times the other day: 'One of the aspects of the recent election that has not been discussed much is the changing demography in some constituencies. Jim Pickard (“Thornberry fires starting gun in race for Labour leadership”, December 19) refers to the transformation of Nuneaton from a marginal seat to one with large Conservative majorities.'

In recent years large numbers of new houses have been built in Nuneaton, relatively reasonably priced by Warwickshire standards. Given the existence of “good” train services, the town has attracted commuters to Birmingham, and even to London, so there has been quite a big change in the make-up of the town, which in turn affects voting patterns.'

One Nuneaton resident emailed me to say: 'I remember the same happening when Shirley Williams lost her Hertford and Stevenage seat in 1979. The electrification of the Hertford line changed things beyond recognition as new folks moved in.' The other thing happening in Nuneaton is that there are lots of new jobs but, of course, in logistics and the “traditional” industries (coal, quarrying, textiles) are long gone.'

Another example would be my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington which has shifted from safe Conservative to marginal Labour hold in 2019.

I don't know Blythe Valley or Bishop Auckland, but I did hear comment that there had been an inward migration of commuters to buy relatively affordable housing.

The 'Workington Man' stereotype attracted some criticism because it was seen as a media shortcut which conceals as much as it reveals. Nevertheless, there was a particular group of voters in northern England who shifted to the Conservatives: Realignment

It is very likely that constituencies will be redistricted before the next election, although it is not clear whether the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 as David Cameron originally proposed. One calculation is that the new boundaries would have given the Conservatives a majority of just over 100.

Not everyone expected a short war in 1914

Not everyone in 1914 thought that the war would be over by Christmas. A retired soldier, Sir Charles Hunter, addressed a large audience in the Jephson Gardens in Leamington and told them that they would have to go back to the Napoleonic era to realise what this great war meant. Many people were saying that the Germans would be starved out within a few months and then the war would be over. However, he thought that a long war was in prospect, anything between six months and three years.

One immediate consequence of the outbreak of war was the dismantling of all the amateur radio stations in the town. The largest mast had been that of Mr Ryres in Northumberland Road, but it disappeared with all the others. He had been picking up messages from French and German military units, but there was a concern that such stations could be used for espionage by German agents and therefore had to be taken out of use.

Over in Nuneaton the outbreak of war had a disastrous effect on the Saturday open air market with half the stalls occupied and a big fall in attendance. Because of troop movements through Nuneaton Station, a number of normal services were curtailed. Recruiting for the colours was so brisk that two sergeants had to be deployed, but a number of men were declared unfit. Around 100 reservists were mobilised and the district expected to supply around 100 boy scouts. 122 horses were bought in the area by the War Office and sent to Birmingham.

And what about football? The initial view after war broke out in August 1914 was that football should continue as usual as it would give the public something to think about apart from the war. The secretary of the Football Association stated, ‘It was in the best interests of the country that the games should go on. As it was, a large number of football players have returned to the Army and Navy, and several thousands are now under arms with their Territorial regiments. The games will not only provide a pastime for the men who have not had military training and for whom the Government could not probably find profitable employment, but they will provide a pleasant competition for those who are not in a position to take up arms, and thus help to keep up as cheerful a tone as possible in the country.’ Football could also raise funds to help those suffering as a result of the war. Takings from practice matches in August should go to the relief funds.

The Football League took a similar view: ‘To sit in sorrow is to aggravate the nation’s sorrow. Any rational sport which can minimise grief, help the nation to bear its sorrow, and relieve the oppression and continuous strain and save the people at home from panic and undue depression is a great national asset which can render further service to the people. Our great winter game should pursue its usual course. Every player should train to be of national service, not least in national defence.’

The Warwickshire Yeomanry was kicking its heels in camp near Bury St. Edmunds. With little of interest in the district, few horses available and movement restricted, the men had been occupying themselves playing football.