Friday, 5 March 2010

Tory lead slips in Labour marginals

Up to now it has always been necessary to qualify comments on the slipping Conservative lead by noting that they are likely to do better in Labour held marginals than across the country as a whole given the resources they have put into such seats. However, this report suggests that their lead there is down to two points: Marginals

The story does give any information about Liberal Democrat marginals which could be crucial in a close outcome.

4 comments:

Justin Greaves said...

The very same poll, however, nevertheless shows the swing in the marginals to be 2% higher than a uniform national swing would suggest:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/04/yougov-marginals-poll-has-lead-down-to-two-points/

CJ Stanley said...

As a voter in a constituency that is definitely marginal, I'm finding the race particularly enthralling. My local MP, David Drew, has a majority of only 350, and I have doubts he'll be able to hang on. We shall see!

Rob said...

I'd be interested to know what people think about the Lib Dem chances. In theory they should be good. The vast majority of the electorate are dissilusioned with at least some aspects of politics, and most people profess to want change away from the two party system of Labour and Conservatives.

The electoral system obviously holds the Lib Dems back. Funding is less than the Conservatives have as the report points out, but then Labour has less money than the Conservatives too. There is also obviously an element of hypocrisy in that although people want fresh ideas and new vision they also want experience and a steady hand at the wheel. But do these factors justify the lack of gains for the Lib Dems in the polls?

What do you think? Why aren't the Lib Dems able to capitalise on widespread discontentment with both Conservatives and Labour?

Rob (www.thebigqs.co.uk)

Wyn Grant said...

I think the short answer to Rob's comment is that the Lib Dems are perceived as part of the political establishment. Reaction to Clegg as a leader also seems quite negative.