Calamity Jo

After high hopes, the general election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats, ending up with fewer seats than they had won before, even leaving aside the defectors who did not fare well. The defeat of Jo Swinson turned out to be the only really successful example of decapitation which was seen as possible for some leading Conservatives. Of course, any party that does not have a regional base like the SNP is vulnerable to a squeeze by the two main parties under a first past the post system. The Lib Dems tend to do better when Labour does well.

Arguably the first mistake, along with Labour, was to back the election, although they were under a lot of pressure to do so. However, they did have Boris Johnson in a vice like grip.

What was certainly a mistake was to pledge to revoke Article 50. Even for hard core remainers, this was often a step too far. It could be presented as anti-democratic and you can't just act as if the referendum never happened. A second referendum was contentious enough, but it would have been more plausible. As it was, it ended the Liberal Democrats' hopes in leave areas such as their former stronghold in the south-west. It did appeal in London and the south-east, but not enough, as exemplified by the narrow defeat at Wimbledon.

Jo Swinson clearly thinks that she was a victim of sexism, saying that when you break the glass ceiling you risk getting hit by fragments of glass. Clearly, there is something in this: the clothes worn by men are the subject of far less scrutiny, and apparently some people objected to her earrings.

She was increasingly vulnerable to attacks for her role as a minister in the Coalition Government. She did apologise for some decisions, but that didn't really resolve the problem. In all fairness, being a minority party in a coalition usually ends badly and the Lib Dems did moderate Conservative policies.

Even before she became leader, she had tendency to talk down to voters as if they were ill informed. They may be, but they shouldn't be patronised. As the campaign progressed, she switched more into head teacher or head girl mode, exasperated at the failure of her arguments to hit home.

Even so, Nicola Sturgeon's triumphalism at Swinson's defeat was not a pleasant moment on election night. You don't kick someone when they are down. Sturgeon tried to row back in subsequent interviews, but her efforts looked insincere.

Whither the Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems need to find a new leader. They don't have a lot of options. Sir Ed Davey has wanted the job for a long time. He would be a safe if dull pair of hands in bad need of a charisma transplant. Also, he was a coalition minister so is vulnerable in the same way as Swinson. Private Eye has him as one of their targets.

Layla Moran is probably more likely to succeed and represents a more modern, diverse face. But how would she go down in the west country?

A wild card is 'Daisy, Daisy, give me an answer do.' The new MP for St. Albans, Daisy Cooper, is highly regarded, but she would be unlikely to stand and even more unlikely to win. Some tough times lie ahead, but they have bounced back before and have a base in local government.

The final straight

I was at a dinner in London last night at which a considerable number of what might be described as political enthusiasts were present and a poll round the table produced a remarkable consensus. The overwhelming majority forecast a Conservative overall majority of between 31 and 39. Of course, that may simply suggest that we were all wrong.

One well-known journalist suggested that a big Conservative majority would be better as a small majority would give the European Research Group more leverage. Maybe, but the Conservative remainers have largely gone and all Conservative candidates have had to pledge that they will back Brexit, whatever the consequences.

Sir John Curtice said recently that the election will be less geographically complicated than anticipated, although I think there could still be one or two unanticipated results. Three things seem reasonably clear:

• Labour is under pressure in its so-called 'red wall', including the ailing 'Beast of Bolsover', although some Labour voters might return to their traditional allegiances at the last minute.
• The Liberal Democrats are not going to win as many seats as anticipated, probably none in the south-west and I suspect that all the defectors will fail, so they may well have fewer than 21 seats, although more than 12. Jo Swinson did quite well in her Andrew Neil interview, but shouldn't start so many sentences with 'Look' which gives her a hectoring tone.
• The Conservatives will hold on to quite a few seats in Scotland, although Labour looks like being almost wiped out.

I doubt whether we will see a 'Portillo moment'. The likes of Dominic Raab and John Redwood will see their majorities badly dented, but will probably hang on.

Election thoughts

Interesting article on the attempts of Dominic Grieve and David Gauke to retain their seats as independents: Chilterns campaigns

I think that it will be hard for either of them to win, but Grieve has a better chance. It wasn't so long ago that the cry was 'Uncork the Gauke' when the Government ran into trouble.

Meanwhile the Conservative lead over Labour seems to be solidifying and points to an overall Conservative majority of at least over 50 and possibly a lot more. However, many voters are still undecided.

The Liberal Democrat poll ratings have been edging downwards and it seems that the more voters see of Jo Swinson, the less they like her. She does have a rather hectoring manner.

Tripping the light fantastic

A while back I was at the theatre in London and Vince Cable come into the row in front. The reaction to him showed that he was personally well liked, at any rate by a London theatre audience. I felt quite sorry for him when a Liberal Democrat bore (of whom there are many) droned on at him in the interval.

He can certainly trip the light fantastic and his ballroom dancing contrasts with May's robotic style. His personal style may be that of a 'tetchy rationalist' as Matthew Parris observed yesterday, but that probably goes down well with some voters.

But is he a good leader of a political party? No. Otherwise the Lib Dems would not be flatlining in the polls when the political weather should be quite good for them. He says he is going to stand down, which he should at 75 (don't give me Churchill), but clearly it's going to be a long goodbye.

Trying to learn from Canadian experience, but in fact turning it into something from the Daft Ideas Department, he is now advocating bringing in a leader from outside Parliament. The favoured candidate, Gina Miller, has sensibly said no way.

The Lib Dems have never had a woman as leader, and have been predominantly masculine in terms of their MPs. However, they now have two women in Parliament who could do the job: my marginal preference would be for Jo Swinson.

William Haugue (not talking about the Lib Dems) at his lovely home in Wales

However, there are more fundamental dilemmas. William Hague said that the good thing about the Coalition Government was that it would finish off the Liberal Democrats and it probably did tarnish their brand beyond repair.

Now many pin their hopes on a Social Democratic Party Mark II. There has been media speculation for months, but whether the advocates will ever come into the daylight remains to be seen.

The Social Democrats failed in part because they were a rump of the Labour Party, notably failing to attract moderate Conservatives (other than the worthy Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler). They did, however, damage Labour in the 1983 election which became 'a race for second place' and this should concern Labour now.

However, the Centre Party will not succeed. The main constraint is the first past the post system. UKIP failed to turn their votes into more than one general election seat (in one of the most barking areas of the country). When voters were offered a modest alternative in a referendum, they voted it down.

The advocates of a Centre party say that most voters identify themselves as 'centrists'. But I think this is because voters don't like to identify themselves as 'extremists', even if their views are on either end of the political spectrum.

Jo Swinson and the vacant centre

I am not a Liberal Democrat, but I have a lot of time for Jo Swinson for the work she did on under discussed issues like body image. She has given an interesting interview to The Guardian: Harder to offer simple solutions

Given that the Labour Party is consolidating its lurch to the left, and a weakened Conservative Party often seems to be held hostage by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, one would think that there was a ready made space in the centre for Liberal Democrats to occupy. After all, the data would suggest that there are plenty of voters in the centre of the political spectrum.

I think that they are still suffering from being in coalition with the Conservatives. At the time I thought it was the right decision as they had to show that they could be a party of government as well as a party of opposition. Swinson herself admits that she learnt a lot from being a minister, in particular the fact that there are no simple solutions to many issues and many dangers from unintended consequences.

Swinson also tackles the issue of whether it was her gender that stopped her standing as leader. Again I think it was the right decision to give 'national treasure' Sir Vince a chance to display his silky skills away from the ballroom floor. But Swinson could well be leader before the next election.

The experience so far with the Democratic Unionists suggests that one can get a lot out of a confidence and supply agreement while still maintain autonomy. But then the Democratic Unionists have demands that relate to a very specific territory and require a cash pay off. What the Liberal Democrats wanted would have been somewhat more elevated.

Do they still agree with Nick?

The Hon. Member for East Dunbartonshire

Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson tweeted this article which defends the role of the Lib Dems in the Coalition Government: Nick

Judging from her tweets, Swinson spends much of her time on an endless tour of events in her East Dunbartonshire constituency or raising issues like the security fencing round the Milngavie (Mull-guy) Reservoir. Makes sense given that her majority was down in May.

However, her many followers were puzzled by a tweet sent out around midnight last Saturday: Yes. What can she have meant?

Lib Dem blogger gives it large

A Lib Dem blogger gives it large in response to an invitation from Derek Simpson of Unite to tear up his membership card. Amusing and to the point: Unite (What is more the guy is an ice hockey fan, Edinburgh Capitals I presume).

Thanks to my fave Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson for tweeting this link.

Hughes favourite in deputy leader race

Left-leaning Bermondsey MP Simon Hughes is emerging as the hot favourite in the contest for Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems, a potentially more significant post in current circumstances. The post became vacant after the resignation of Vince 'Mr Grumpy' Cable who is focusing on his role as Business Secretary.

Hughes has already asked an awkward question of 'The Governent' in the Commons and could become the focus of discontent among Liberal activists, particularly as Conservative backbenchers and the right-wing press are trying to water down an increase in capital gains tax.

Lib Dem starlet Jo Swinson disappointed her many fans when she tweeted: 'surprised & touched by lovely tweets & emails encouraging me to run for Lib Dem deputy leader - however I will not be standing'.

For many years the post was held by veteran MP and former political scientist Alan Beith. Beith played a pivotal role in coalition discussions in the Lib Dem parliamentary party when he drew on his frustrating experience with the Lib-Lab pact to suggest that a full coalition was the only viable option.

Trouble on the backbenches?

Jo Swinson

While relations between ministers in the Coalition Government are generally going well (leaving aside some grumpiness on the part of Vince Cable who refused to do a foxtrot with Theresa May), it's a different story on the backbenches. Conservative backbenchers are disgruntled because some of them didn't get the jobs they hoped for and they also think that the Lib Dems have punched above their weight in terms of policy (which they probably have). David Cameron had to back down on his plan to neuter the 1922 Committee (itself the product of the collapse of a Con-Lib coalition) by allowing ministers to vote for the chairman.

However, there is also some disquiet among Liberal Democrats. Some of this again comes from people who have been passed over in the formation of the Government. But there are also policy concerns, particularly from those MPs who won their seats from Labour.

One of these is the feisty MP for East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson. Swinson is very intelligent and articulate, having achieved a first in Management from LSE (no mean feat), followed by a career in the media. In her late twenties, she is also very photogenic.

For a while Swinson was awarded the rather sexist accolade of 'Babe of the House'. But last year a younger Conservative woman won a by-election in Norwich and she has now gone straight into the government as an assistant whip. Some reports suggest that Swinson is far from happy which may explain the delay in her swearing/affirming to take her seat. She eventually did so yesterday, standing on tiptoe in the Lords to see the Queen and admiring all the 'bling'.

We may yet hear from Ms Swinson and not just about the concerns of her East Dunbartonshire constituents whom she cultivates very assiduously or the closure of Westminster Bridge for the state opening of which she tweeted a picture yesterday.