The spectre of Conform

Unconfirmed press reports suggest that Nigel Farage is open to some kind of agreement with the Conservatives after the next general election.   It is certainly possible that Reform could be the largest party but without a majority.   My hunch is that this could be a 1974 scenario with a second election following.

It need not be, and probably would not be a formal coalition, more a confidence and supply agreement as Theresa May had with the Democratic Unionists.

Living in Warwickshire, I have seen the spectacle of the Reform Party and its 19-year old leader being propped up by the Conservatives.   The make up of the authority is complex, in part because of defections and one suspension (of a Green councillor).

However, when a no confidence motion was introduced to unseat the leader, he survived by one vote as the Conservatives sat on their hands apart from one brave soul who was then suspended for three months (subject to an appeal).

I have seen the future and it doesn't work.   Unfortunately, a lot of voters have said 'we've tried the Conservatives and Labour and they don't work, so why not give Reform a try?'  I could give plenty of reasons.

The Liberal Democrats seem to be mainly in the minds of voters in terms of Ed Davey's stunts, the man in the wet suit.  They would claim to have distinctive policies, but the overall narrative is less clear and discontent appears to be growing (although they are well dug in if one looks at some localities, especially at local government level).

Calamity Jo

After high hopes, the general election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats, ending up with fewer seats than they had won before, even leaving aside the defectors who did not fare well. The defeat of Jo Swinson turned out to be the only really successful example of decapitation which was seen as possible for some leading Conservatives. Of course, any party that does not have a regional base like the SNP is vulnerable to a squeeze by the two main parties under a first past the post system. The Lib Dems tend to do better when Labour does well.

Arguably the first mistake, along with Labour, was to back the election, although they were under a lot of pressure to do so. However, they did have Boris Johnson in a vice like grip.

What was certainly a mistake was to pledge to revoke Article 50. Even for hard core remainers, this was often a step too far. It could be presented as anti-democratic and you can't just act as if the referendum never happened. A second referendum was contentious enough, but it would have been more plausible. As it was, it ended the Liberal Democrats' hopes in leave areas such as their former stronghold in the south-west. It did appeal in London and the south-east, but not enough, as exemplified by the narrow defeat at Wimbledon.

Jo Swinson clearly thinks that she was a victim of sexism, saying that when you break the glass ceiling you risk getting hit by fragments of glass. Clearly, there is something in this: the clothes worn by men are the subject of far less scrutiny, and apparently some people objected to her earrings.

She was increasingly vulnerable to attacks for her role as a minister in the Coalition Government. She did apologise for some decisions, but that didn't really resolve the problem. In all fairness, being a minority party in a coalition usually ends badly and the Lib Dems did moderate Conservative policies.

Even before she became leader, she had tendency to talk down to voters as if they were ill informed. They may be, but they shouldn't be patronised. As the campaign progressed, she switched more into head teacher or head girl mode, exasperated at the failure of her arguments to hit home.

Even so, Nicola Sturgeon's triumphalism at Swinson's defeat was not a pleasant moment on election night. You don't kick someone when they are down. Sturgeon tried to row back in subsequent interviews, but her efforts looked insincere.

Whither the Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems need to find a new leader. They don't have a lot of options. Sir Ed Davey has wanted the job for a long time. He would be a safe if dull pair of hands in bad need of a charisma transplant. Also, he was a coalition minister so is vulnerable in the same way as Swinson. Private Eye has him as one of their targets.

Layla Moran is probably more likely to succeed and represents a more modern, diverse face. But how would she go down in the west country?

A wild card is 'Daisy, Daisy, give me an answer do.' The new MP for St. Albans, Daisy Cooper, is highly regarded, but she would be unlikely to stand and even more unlikely to win. Some tough times lie ahead, but they have bounced back before and have a base in local government.