Two cheers for an Established Church

On Christmas Day morning I will attend Holy Communion at All Saints Parish Church in Leamington Spa where I happen to be chair of the Friends of the Parish Church. The Friends are not confined to members of the congregation and are trying to raise money to restore the deteriorating fabric and also see the space used more as a community asset. I am a baptised but not a communicant member of the Church of England and therefore cannot take communion. So as far as I am concerned I am taking advantage of my rights as a citizen to attend services.

In some ways it is frustrating to attend a communion service and not participate fully. I was even offered a fast track to confirmation, but made it clear that I did not feel I was anywhere near a state of grace. Confirmation would involve me stating things about which I have serious doubts, just as I cannot accept everything in the Nicene Creed.

Conventional reformist wisdom is that the established status of the Church of England is an anachronism, indeed many Anglicans would hold to that view. In a diverse country, why should one version of one religion be privileged above all others, including representation in the House of Lords? It is an argument whose strength I acknowledge. If and when Brian becomes king, he has made it clear that he will see himself as defender of the faiths in the plural.

One of the strengths of establishment was that it provided a bulwark of a middle road form of Anglicanism which discouraged cults and sects, but in many ways the Church of England is already highly factionalised. Disestablishment would be the final blow to an institution with declining and ageing congregations (other than various manifestations of the evangelical wing). Some argue that it would not be missed: one should take faith seriously or reject it, but not take it lightly.

Other countries have an established church (or churches) that benefit from state taxes (there are also countries such as Germany which do not have an established church but have church taxes). In Finland almost all of the money goes to the Lutheran church. A friend of mine wanted to disconnect himself and found it a difficult procedure that encountered puzzlement as to why any Finn should wish to take this step.

For me the greatest value of the Church of England was attending one of its primary schools, although this involvement is also controversial. The school I attended served what was then a predominantly white working class area. It now serves a diverse area with an increasing number of pupils for whom English is an additional language. It still making a contribution to the local community, respecting other faiths whilst proclaiming Christian values: St. Margaret's Church of England school

I find the different tendencies within the CoE quite difficult to classify, but I would say that the school I attended and the adjacent now demolished church was at least English Catholic. As a consequence, I had to wrestle with some heavy duty theology from the age of seven onwards which played an important contribution to my intellectual development. I had to wrestle with puzzles I could not understand, let alone solve. For example, I have discussed the doctrine of transubstantiation with Roman Catholic friends and Anglicans, but I am still left baffled by it.

We had excellent teachers (one was a published author of books for children), but they came from relatively middle class backgrounds. Hence, the advice that we could attend Catholic mass if we went to France was somewhat irrelevant. A day trip to Boulonge would be just about affordable.

All this left me mystified about the difference between Anglo and Roman Catholicism. Somewhat irreverently, I asked if the problem would be solved if the Pope was English and the Vatican moved to Canterbury, an observation for which I was expelled from the class.

The ethical principles of Christianity as expressed particularly in the New Testament were ones I was generally in agreement with, although I had difficulties with Saint Paul. I welcome women clergy and a church that seeks to be inclusive of a range of sexual identities.

Some would say that Anglicanism is all about doubt. I can just about adhere to it as an Established Church which I attend as a citizen, but the link is tenuous.

How constituencies change over time

I had the following letter published in the Financial Times the other day: 'One of the aspects of the recent election that has not been discussed much is the changing demography in some constituencies. Jim Pickard (“Thornberry fires starting gun in race for Labour leadership”, December 19) refers to the transformation of Nuneaton from a marginal seat to one with large Conservative majorities.'

In recent years large numbers of new houses have been built in Nuneaton, relatively reasonably priced by Warwickshire standards. Given the existence of “good” train services, the town has attracted commuters to Birmingham, and even to London, so there has been quite a big change in the make-up of the town, which in turn affects voting patterns.'

One Nuneaton resident emailed me to say: 'I remember the same happening when Shirley Williams lost her Hertford and Stevenage seat in 1979. The electrification of the Hertford line changed things beyond recognition as new folks moved in.' The other thing happening in Nuneaton is that there are lots of new jobs but, of course, in logistics and the “traditional” industries (coal, quarrying, textiles) are long gone.'

Another example would be my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington which has shifted from safe Conservative to marginal Labour hold in 2019.

I don't know Blythe Valley or Bishop Auckland, but I did hear comment that there had been an inward migration of commuters to buy relatively affordable housing.

The 'Workington Man' stereotype attracted some criticism because it was seen as a media shortcut which conceals as much as it reveals. Nevertheless, there was a particular group of voters in northern England who shifted to the Conservatives: Realignment

It is very likely that constituencies will be redistricted before the next election, although it is not clear whether the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 as David Cameron originally proposed. One calculation is that the new boundaries would have given the Conservatives a majority of just over 100.

Will we see the Cap of Maintenance today?

Given that there is a scaled down Queen's speech today in terms of ceremonial I wonder whether we will see the Cap of Maintenance. It was such a long time to the last speech that I feared the moths might have got at it, but it was held aloft with due reverence.

I have never really understood Catholic symbolism in a country that has a nominally Protestant Established Church; it was given to Henry the Eighth by the Pope for his efforts in maintaining the Catholic religion before his breach with Rome. Henry did, however, remain very much a Catholic in his religious observance.

I suppose that reflects some of the contradictions in the Church of England which I struggle with as an Erastian, i.e., a believer in an established church. I realise that position is now under attack even within the CoE. It does mean that I have a right to the services of the Church as a citizen without being a communicant member.

Having been 'head hunted' to be the chair of the Friends of the local Parish Church, my position becomes even more contradictory. The task of the Friends is to involve people who are not members of the congregation in helping to preserve its fabric: it was built with a very soft sandstone and is larger than some cathedrals.

It is also being used more for community events, so we screened the Life of Brian, which caused a bit of a media storm, and hosted the opening concert of Fairport Convention's summer tour.

I feel some obligation to attend services on major feast days, but they are usually Mass or Holy Communion (sometimes one gets choked with incense, other times there is none) which makes it all a bit pointless for me.

10.58: I have just seen the Cap of Maintenance leaving Buckingham Palace, in its own (horseless) vehicle.

11.02: Correction, it is sharing a vehicle with the sword of state, the crown has its own vehicle.

End of the union?

In 1968 I published my first (co-authored) article in a respectable academic journal on Welsh and Scottish Nationalism. The article was derided by some colleagues, but I thought it was quite good for a third year undergraduate. I thought that the two emergent nationalisms need to be treated comparatively. I argued that Welsh nationalism had more of a cultural basis. Indeed, the four PC seats at Westminster are all adjacent to one another in traditional Welsh speaking areas. Gwn fod gan y blaid gefnogaeth mewn mannau eraill a'i bod yn ceisio adeiladu ei sylfaen drefol.

A subsequent and better received article was based on an analysis of SNP councillors in the two new towns of East Kilbride and Cumbernauld, one of the most fascinating pieces of work I have ever done and which gave me many anecdotes.

One of the potential longer term consequences of the general election is the possible break up of the United Kingdom. In the case of Northern Ireland, Nationalists now outnumber Unionists among MPs. Given that Sinn Fein saw their vote fall and the Democratic Unionists lost seats there may now be some impetus to get the power sharing arrangement working again so that urgent problems like the state of the health service can be tackled. Let no one say that a country can manage perfectly well without a functioning government.

Neither the UK nor Irish governments have any appetite for a border poll. However, in the longer run could we see a confederal arrangement on the island of Ireland, outside the UK, but with a devolved assembly at Stormont?

In this article, I am not going to deal with Wales, not because I think it is unimportant but because the future there is far less clear. There doesn't seem to be a real appetite for independence. Beth yw'r dyfodol i Gymru? Dydw I ddim yn gwybod.

Scotland

I have a sentimental attachment to Scotland. In 1793 my direct ancestor James Grant left his birthplace of Urquhart on the shores of Loch Ness and his father Donald Bain Grant to join the British Army. He fought at Waterloo and showed dangerous Europhile tendencies by marrying a French woman. In 1970 I was proud to graduate from a Scottish university. I regard myself as British rather than English, particularly given that my mother's family came from Cornwall.

Sentiment aside, disentangling the over 300 year relationship between England and Scotland would make Brexit seem a doddle. If an independent Scotland subsequently joined the EU, what would this mean for the Anglo-Scottish border?

When I was in Edinburgh last year my taxi driver described Nicola Sturgeon as 'a very dangerous woman'. I think he was right. I don't like her or what she stands for, but I respect her effectiveness in the pursuit of her beliefs.

To me it is evident that momentum is building for independence in Scotland. Young people in particular are more inclined to support it. Indy Ref2 could be very close - I would find it odd if independence was won by a handful of votes. My guess is that it might be like the second Quebec referendum, close but no cigar.

Even so, the dilemma is whether to have one at all. I do not think this is just a matter for the people of Scotland. It affects England as well. 'Engerland' on its own could well become inward looking and xenophobic. In the past Scottish leaders have played an important role in offering leadership to the UK.

I think at the very least it is reasonable to say that any referendum should not be held until after the Holyrood elections in May 2021. The UK Government can reasonably argue that its focus this year, and quite possibly for some of 2021, has to be on negotiating a trade and security agreement with the EU.

Boris Johnson is clearly minded not to allow a referendum at all. That might simply build support for the Nationalist cause. There is talk of the Scottish Government holding its own referendum. This would be challenged by the UK Government in the courts and they might well win. If such a referendum was held, unionists would be well advised to abstain to deny its legitimacy.

I think there is a better than evens chance of Scotland becoming independent and 'walking tall among the nations' a decade from now. If Scotland re-joined the EU, it would be obliged to join the euro and we would then have the inconvenience of changing money at the border even if there was a common travel zone. (As it is, although Scottish notes are legal tender south of the border, many retailers won't accept them).

I know that some English voters think that we would save money given that Scotland has a substantial fiscal deficit funded from the south. The SNP would argue that the country's oil has been stolen. This is a controversial issue and would be one of the most difficult subjects in independence negotiations.

I don't think Orkney and Shetland would be too keen on an independent Scotland. In Orkney the local flag (an adaptation of the Norwegian one) is displayed when ministers make the trek from Edinburgh.

A YouGov poll earlier this year found that Conservative activists were prepared to see the dissolution of the union as a price for obtaining Brexit. It seems a high price to pay to me.

Why did Labour hold Warwick and Leamington?

On a bad night for Labour, they managed to see off a Conservative challenge in the highly marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington with a swing against them of just 0.79 per cent. How can this be explained?

I have lived in Leamington for forty-five years. I have seen Conservative and Labour MPs come and go: first Sir Dudley Smith (there had been a Conservative MP since 1910) defeated in the Labour landslide of 1997 by James Plaskitt, who in turn was defeated by Chris White in 2010 (he had been narrowly defeated in 2005). Then in 2017 Chris White was replaced on an above average swing by Matt Western, a county councillor.

Western's victory came as something of a surprise to him, so I am told. Another reliable source told me that last weekend he thought he was toast. He has been a hard working and effective constituency MP, but so was his predecessor, Chris White. Personal votes are not normally that large and the term at Warwick University had ended the preceding week, denting the student vote. Nevertheless, turnout at over 70 per cent was above the national average.

The Economist interviewed me over lunch and showed me their constituency poll which showed Conservative Jack Rankin one point ahead which, given the sample size, was well within the range of sampling error. The one quote they used from me was about the Countess of Warwick standing against Sir Anthony Eden as the Labour candidate in 1923 and campaigning from her chauffeur driven Rolls Royce.

I have not been able to find out the age of the Conservative candidate, Jack Rankin, anywhere but apparently he was the most youthful member of Windsor District Council. On his literature, the Warwick masters graduate and commodities trader looked very young indeed. Whether this influenced any voters one way or another is a matter of speculation.

One knowledgeable person observed to me, 'No mention of Corbyn in his literature and very little indication that he was actually Labour just the incumbent running for re-election. But then my one time student Vernon Coaker followed a similar strategy in Gedling. It has helped him hold the seat against the odds in the past, but this time he lost, albeit on a smaller than average swing for the East Midlands.

Given the sort of seat it is, one might expect the Liberal Democrats to do better, particularly given that they have quite a strong local government presence. They generally finish a poor third, but increased their share of the vote this time.

Warwick and Leamington was a Remain constituency, as far as I can recall the only one in the West Midlands. I suspect that the Midlands political correspondent, Patrick Burns, was one to something when he said at the last election was that it was like a North London seat, set in the middle of Warwickshire. Indeed, some of it looks like North London.

The Conservatives West Midlands website said that winning the seat back was a must if they were to have a majority in the Commons. With the Red Wall crumbling, they easily obtained a big majority anyway.

Calamity Jo

After high hopes, the general election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats, ending up with fewer seats than they had won before, even leaving aside the defectors who did not fare well. The defeat of Jo Swinson turned out to be the only really successful example of decapitation which was seen as possible for some leading Conservatives. Of course, any party that does not have a regional base like the SNP is vulnerable to a squeeze by the two main parties under a first past the post system. The Lib Dems tend to do better when Labour does well.

Arguably the first mistake, along with Labour, was to back the election, although they were under a lot of pressure to do so. However, they did have Boris Johnson in a vice like grip.

What was certainly a mistake was to pledge to revoke Article 50. Even for hard core remainers, this was often a step too far. It could be presented as anti-democratic and you can't just act as if the referendum never happened. A second referendum was contentious enough, but it would have been more plausible. As it was, it ended the Liberal Democrats' hopes in leave areas such as their former stronghold in the south-west. It did appeal in London and the south-east, but not enough, as exemplified by the narrow defeat at Wimbledon.

Jo Swinson clearly thinks that she was a victim of sexism, saying that when you break the glass ceiling you risk getting hit by fragments of glass. Clearly, there is something in this: the clothes worn by men are the subject of far less scrutiny, and apparently some people objected to her earrings.

She was increasingly vulnerable to attacks for her role as a minister in the Coalition Government. She did apologise for some decisions, but that didn't really resolve the problem. In all fairness, being a minority party in a coalition usually ends badly and the Lib Dems did moderate Conservative policies.

Even before she became leader, she had tendency to talk down to voters as if they were ill informed. They may be, but they shouldn't be patronised. As the campaign progressed, she switched more into head teacher or head girl mode, exasperated at the failure of her arguments to hit home.

Even so, Nicola Sturgeon's triumphalism at Swinson's defeat was not a pleasant moment on election night. You don't kick someone when they are down. Sturgeon tried to row back in subsequent interviews, but her efforts looked insincere.

Whither the Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems need to find a new leader. They don't have a lot of options. Sir Ed Davey has wanted the job for a long time. He would be a safe if dull pair of hands in bad need of a charisma transplant. Also, he was a coalition minister so is vulnerable in the same way as Swinson. Private Eye has him as one of their targets.

Layla Moran is probably more likely to succeed and represents a more modern, diverse face. But how would she go down in the west country?

A wild card is 'Daisy, Daisy, give me an answer do.' The new MP for St. Albans, Daisy Cooper, is highly regarded, but she would be unlikely to stand and even more unlikely to win. Some tough times lie ahead, but they have bounced back before and have a base in local government.

Scilly mistake

The BBC announced last night that the St.Ives result would be delayed (it still is) because rough weather was stopping the collection of the ballot box from the island of Samson. It has been uninhabited since the 19th century. Wags are saying that they will look for the polling station on their next holiday.

This morning Radio 5 referred to 'nearby islands'. They are some 25 miles off Land's End.

Harold Wilson once held a press conference on Samson when he was prime minister.

Getting a new Parliament up and running

A useful guide from the Constitution Unit written by two former Clerks of the House: What happens after the election

A possible surprise in East Devon?

The Conservatives look as if they might be heading for a 40+ overall majority, but there could be a surprise in East Devon where a local informant tells me there is a 60/40 chance of the independent winning.

Interesting article on the constituency in the New Statesman: Rural revolt

The marginal constituency of St. Ives includes the Isles of Scilly. From the island with the smallest population, St. Agnes (which once recorded a 100 per cent turnout im a local election), the ballot box is taken to St Mary’s on @stagnesboating after polling closes at 10 pm. So it will be interesting to see what happens this week with wind and sea forecast as it is and it being dark.

What does Wrexham poll show?

Wrexham has been held by Labour since 1935. Yet a constituency poll by The Economist shows Labour down 20 points and the Conservatives 15 per cent ahead. If this is typical of 'red wall' seats, then the consequences for Labour could be devastating. It could be an outlier, but there are some indications from elsewhere to suggest that it is not.

If the sample size was similar to that for Warwick and Leamington it would be about 500, so some caution is necessary, but it doesn't explain away such a large lead.

The final straight

I was at a dinner in London last night at which a considerable number of what might be described as political enthusiasts were present and a poll round the table produced a remarkable consensus. The overwhelming majority forecast a Conservative overall majority of between 31 and 39. Of course, that may simply suggest that we were all wrong.

One well-known journalist suggested that a big Conservative majority would be better as a small majority would give the European Research Group more leverage. Maybe, but the Conservative remainers have largely gone and all Conservative candidates have had to pledge that they will back Brexit, whatever the consequences.

Sir John Curtice said recently that the election will be less geographically complicated than anticipated, although I think there could still be one or two unanticipated results. Three things seem reasonably clear:

• Labour is under pressure in its so-called 'red wall', including the ailing 'Beast of Bolsover', although some Labour voters might return to their traditional allegiances at the last minute.
• The Liberal Democrats are not going to win as many seats as anticipated, probably none in the south-west and I suspect that all the defectors will fail, so they may well have fewer than 21 seats, although more than 12. Jo Swinson did quite well in her Andrew Neil interview, but shouldn't start so many sentences with 'Look' which gives her a hectoring tone.
• The Conservatives will hold on to quite a few seats in Scotland, although Labour looks like being almost wiped out.

I doubt whether we will see a 'Portillo moment'. The likes of Dominic Raab and John Redwood will see their majorities badly dented, but will probably hang on.