The view of election experts forming the 'Who will win?' panel at the Political Stdies Association conference at Edinburgh was that Dave Cameron would be the prime minister after the general election. They were less certain whether the Conservatives would have an overall majority or just be the largest party.
It was pointed out that it was puzzling the Conservatives were not doing better given the unpopularity of Gordon Brown and Labour policy errors. It was noted that all governments tended to experience a 'U' shaped trend in popularity during their time in office. It was also questioned whether this was really an election that anyone would want to win given the poisoned chalice they would inherit.