The scrumpy Budget

All the talk on social networking sites and on Radio 5 has been about the tax increase on cider. Apparently it has upset a lot of people in the west country, but I shouldn't think that will worry Labour too much given its lack of seats in the cider growing areas.

Although there have been a series of departmental statements about 'efficiency savings' which, of course, have to be achieved, and in any event are not likely to be painless, the real decisions have been postponed until after the election. Should Labour get back, there will be a comprehensive spending review and probably another budget before the year is out. If the Conservatives return, they have promised an emergency budget in 50 days.

Both parties are being very coy about a rise in Value Added Tax. To the annoyance of his colleagues, Alastair Darling has refused to rule it out, but under any scenario, he is unlikely to be Chancellor after the election. George Osborne was evasive when he was questioned on Radio 5 this morning, saying that he didn't have any specific plans, which does not mean that he would not do it.

Osborne was critical of the Government decision to freeze personal tax allowances which was not mentioned in the Budget speech at all, but it is difficult to see what else the Government could do in the circumstances and he made no commitment to reverse the decision.

Labour's strategy in a very political budget was clearly to try and shore up core Labour support with a 'soak the rich' approach, emphasising that 60 per cent of the tax increases would be borne by 5 per cent of the population. Broadly, I would think that the budget is politically neutral as well as fiscally neutral, i.e., it won't shift many votes either way except perhaps a few disgruntled cider drinkers.

I did the budget hour on BBC Coventry and Warwickshire last night and the guy trying to do vox pops at the bus station was getting very little response at all, suggesting a great indifference. People don't like the increases in fuel (the cost seems to go up every time one fills up) and drink, but somehow expect them.

I took part in a panel discussion at Rory Bremner's show at Warwick Arts Centre last night and what came across, not surprisingly, was a great disillusionment with the whole political process. There are no easy answers to that with successive revelations about politicians lining their pockets rather than serving the public interest.

Sam Cam is pregnant

The battle of the wives in the run up to the general election took a new turn tonight with the news that Dave Cameron's wife Samantha is pregnant: Sam If Dave wins the election, a child could be born to a Downing Street family for the first time since Cherie Blair had Leo ten years ago. It's quite a change from the days of the cuckolded Harold Macmillan with his prostate problems.

The news gives a more savoury turn to the 'leaders' wives' dimension of the election after it was revealed that 'alluring' pictures of Sam undertaking a modelling assignment over ten years ago were being hawked at a starting price of 25k.

One of the ways in which Dave Cameron appeals to key women voters is a 'family man'. Judgements about the leader are now a key element in voters' decisions and that extends to his wife and family.

Whiteley forecasts Labour as largest party

Writing in the new Political Studies Association magazine Political Insight leading electoral studies analyst Paul Whiteley uses a seats-vote model to forecast that Labour will be the largest party after the general election. He cautions, however, 'The data from 2005 suggest that the parties are so close together that either Conservatives or Labour could be the largest party in the House of Commons.'

He admits, 'There is one complication with the forecasting model, however: it is very difficult to model accurately the number of seats won by parties other than Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. This is because the seats won by minor parties are relatively unpredictable'.

I don't have a model to use, only my own intution and the opinion polls, but I would expect the Conservatives to be the largest party and have a small overall majority. But it's all still to play for.

Tories unleash secret weapon

The Conservatives regard Samantha Cameron as a secret weapon they can unleash in the run up to the general election and she has given an interview in which she talks about Dave's irritating habits: Samantha This is evidently all good populist stuff as Radio 5 picked 'irritating habits' as their text theme this morning.

Various reports have suggested that Sam is not all that keen on politics and there have even been claims that she might have voted for New Labour in the past. Private Eye mocks her as Lady Veronica Starbogling in line with their 'toffs' theme, but she comes across as a modern and personable woman.

It all helps to humanise Dave and present him as something else than a 'Tory toff'. Mind you, Sarah Brown is no slouch either. Whoever wins we hopefully won't go back to the days when Cheri Blair regarded herself as First Lady.

Political mood does not suit Labour

This research on political mood looks interesting and it is not good news for Labour:
Mood

As veteran opinion pollster Sir Bob Worcester forecast in his lecture at Warwick University on Wednesday, David Cameron will be asked by the Queen to form an administration on 7 May. Whether as a head of a minority government or with an overall majority remains to be seen, although I would tend towards a small overall majority.

Parties neck-and-neck in poll

Although the Conservatives are doing better in key Labour-held marginals than the country as a whole, Labour are just ahead overall in 100 key seats, according to a poll in The Times today: Poll

If this poll was reflected in a general election, it would make the Conservatives the largest party but deny them an overall majority. There is a still strong mood among voters that it is 'time for a change', but they remain unconvinced that the Conservatives would be the right change.

The Lord Ashcroft affair has not helped the Conservatives, partly because it is an unwelcome distraction but also because it raises questions about David Cameron's character.

Tory lead slips in Labour marginals

Up to now it has always been necessary to qualify comments on the slipping Conservative lead by noting that they are likely to do better in Labour held marginals than across the country as a whole given the resources they have put into such seats. However, this report suggests that their lead there is down to two points: Marginals

The story does give any information about Liberal Democrat marginals which could be crucial in a close outcome.