Coalition tie

I never anticipated a Conservative-Liberal coalition government. In fact, I think I have only made two correct predictions over the last couple of weeks. I forecast that Chris White would win Warwick and Leamington for the Conservatives, but greatly underestimated his majority. Actually my original intuition was that his majority would be over 3,000, but I couldn't believe that the swing would be that big. If it had been across the country as a whole, the Conservatives would have a comfortable working majority.

Following Gordon Brown's resignation, my local BBC radio station rang up and asked me on air when David Cameron would arrive at Downing Street. I did a very rough calculation of the likely choreography, but it was an inspired guess that made me say 8.45 p.m. (it was 8.43).

Once the election results were known, I thought that the Lib Dems would limit themselves to a 'confidence and supply' agreement with the Conservatives and that another election would follow. Although the so-called 'progressive majority' is something of a myth and not all Lib Dem voters are natural Labour voters who have strayed, I though they would be reluctant to vacate their slightly left-of-centre political space and risk their identity.

When the National Government was formed in 1931, the Liberals split (as did Labour, although National Labour was a small faction). The National Liberals had a distinct identity into well in the post-war period with their own whips and space in the House of Commons. Some candidates stood as 'National Liberal and Conservative' or some such formulation. But they became a footnote to history.

I realised how much I changed when I saw the Lord President of the Council, Nick Clegg, leading his fellow cabinet ministers into Buckingham Palace to receive their seals of office. They must have thought they would never see the day. It is also good to see a talented young woman like Sarah Teather become a minister of state.

The personal chemistry in the coalition is so far good, with perhaps a hint of tension between Vince Cable and George Osborne. The coalition agreement, a much shorter agreement than is usual in continental Europe, needs to be fleshed out, although it was completed with commendable speed (it takes about three weeks in Germany). Mechanisms have been put in place to resolve disagreements. Some of the most difficult issues may arise because of EU directives or regulations, with decisions unfavourable to British interests on hedge funds scheduled to be taken in a week or two.

There has been some argument about the fixed term parliament proposals, with constitutional experts expressing different views. The legislation may get a rough ride in the House of Lords.

I had a look in my wardrobe this morning at my collection of ties. I don't wear a tie that often, although I have a lot. But I didn't have one that was predominantly blue with a subordinate yellow theme. So I went out and bought one.

Whilst talk of the 'national interest' has been overdone in the last few days, the country's economic and financial circumstances are such that we need this coalition government to work.

A fixed term Parliament?

The proposal for a fixed term Parliament is one way of underpinning the durability of the coalition government (the Liberal Conservative coalition as David Cameron significantly calls it). But is it constitutionally viable?

What the agreement says on this subject is: 'The parties agree to the establishment of five year fixed-term parliaments. A Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government will put a binding motion before the House of Commons in the first days following this agreement stating that the next general election will be held on the first Thursday of May 2015. Following this motion, legislation will be brought forward to make provision for fixed term parliaments of five years. This legislation will also provide for dissolution if 55% or more of the House votes in favour.'

First, I would question whether the House of Commons can 'bind' itself in this way. Second, how was the figure of 55 per cent arrived at? Is it because it would allow the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to call an election if they thought it was in their mutual interest?

One constitutional expert who happens to be a Conservative in the upper house has remarked: 'It is remarkable for claiming that there will be a "binding resolution". There can be a resolution but there is no provision for it to be binding. I wonder if the Queen has been told that her legal power to dissolve power is subject to a resolution of the House of Commons.' Indeed.

New phase in British politics

Warwick University graduate Gus O'Donnell welcomes David and Samantha Cameron to 10 Downing Street as Cabinet Secretary. We always knew that Introduction to Government course would come in handy

Britain has its first new peacetime coalition government since 1931. Many details about policy and personnel remain to be made clear, but there are Liberals in government for the first time since 1945.

Gordon Brown was not much liked by the country. He lacked communication skills and had his flaws, as he admitted today. But he was a decent and honourable man who has lived his life in public service in accordance with core moral values. Hopefully, he can become the next head of the IMF.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg have begun a bold experiment. There will be many tensions, not least over the EU. Britain faces difficult circumstances and some hard choices, as David Cameron made clear.

However, the Lib Dems have already moderated the least palatable Conservative policies on inheritance tax and marriage. They are, however, backing the additional £6bn cuts deemed necessary by the Conservatives.

For the first time we have a photograph of the monarch appointing her prime minister.
The old and the new thus come together. Now the hard work begins.

Nick and Dave make up

Dave's friends still think that Nick treated him badly when he started flirting with Laura Labour. But at the end of the day, wealth and breeding counts and it looks as if the marriage of convenience is going to win through: Deal

I do not think that the so-called 'rainbow coalition' could have worked or if it had the price would have been special treatment for voters in the devolved regions. Clearly there will be recurrent tensions in any Conservative-Liberal arrangement, not least from the backbenches of both parties, and I think that this Parliament will fall far short of a full term.

The pace of events and the changing picture has been extraordinary. I wouldn't have been surprised to be told that Vince Cable had displaced Nick Clegg in a coup and was forming a coalition in the 'national interest' with the Official Monster Raving Loony Party and the Ultra Rockall is Unionist Party.

An element of chaos creeps into coalition talks

The coalition negotiations have been conducted in a orderly and professional manner up to now, but an element of chaos crept in when David Laws made a statement over a mobile phone from inside the House of Commons to media crews outside. It was quite difficult to hear what he was saying and in particular to understand questions from the likes of Nick Robinson.

What it seemed to come down to was this. The talks with the Conservatives had been 'very good'. But further clarification was required on three issues:

1. Education and in particular the pupil premium, of particular concern to Laws as the putative Education Secretary.
2. Tax reform.
3. Voting reform.

On the last point, it appears that soundings have been taken within the Conservative Party on a referendum on the alternative vote, which some Lib Dems have said they might accept if there was a review after a few years.

Decision day

It increasingly looks like decision day in terms of the formation of a new government. Talks between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats appear to have gone well this morning. It also looks as if a coalition may be on the cards as the Conservatives consider that would give a more stable basis for government. In that case Nick Clegg could be deputy prime minister and Vince Cable might be business secretary.

Nick Clegg is currently explaining the deal to his 57 MPs in the Grand Committee Room of the House of Commons. This meeting was still going after 90 minutes and coffee and muffins were sent for. It is understood that the Tory proposals have had a 'mixed reception' which could mean a resumption of negotiations later today or tomorrow.

It is being reported that Gordon Brown will make a statement later and will offer to stand down as prime minister after a stipulated period.

Labour has been trying to sow dissent in Lib Dem ranks. There have been talks between Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown this morning and there could be further discussions later today. Lord Mandelson has held secret talks with Lib Dems over the weekend in the context of a so-called 'spoiler' offer.

The choreography of Gordon Brown's departure remains uncertain. The Queen returned this morning from her home at Windsor Castle to her London office at Buck House.

Dave Cameron is meeting his MPs at 6 p.m., among them will be new Warwick and Leamington MP Chris White.

What is the progressive majority?

Union charm merchant Jack Dromey, now elected as a MP and clear fulfilling the attack dog role, has said on television that Britain is not a Conservative country. Well, if he looks at the figures, England clearly is and the West Lothian question looms large again.

There is now a lot of talk about a progressive majority in the country. This assumes that all Lib Dems are to the left of the centre, whereas those in the rural peripheries where the party is strong are often small 'c' conservatives. One also has to be careful of this sort of logic: on that basis Tony Blair had no majority in 1997.

There is no doubt that the argument over PR has gained some momentum. However, whilst it is preoccupying the political chattering classes, I don't think it's the main topic of conversation among voters.

What we need now is a government that can take decisions and even some people in the Labour Party are recognising that the arithmetic favours the Conservatives. It's poisoned chalice anyway so one would think they would be content to see the Conservatives in power while they regroup.

This is not going to be anything like a five year Parliament and a referendum on PR is not off the agenda. However, if we did have PR we would have to expect events of this kind to be a regular occurrence. With a slightly different outcome, very small parties would have a disproportionate weight and those who argue from fairness should bear that in mind.

A rainbow coalition?

Some interesting information here about potential coalition combinations: Coalitions

My view is that we are going to need another election sooner rather than later to see if the electorate can make their collective minds up. A rainbow coalition would be very unstable, but there could be tensions in a Conservative-Liberal arrangement which could increase over time. However, the Lib Dems have a clear interest in avoiding an early election.

This article on the splut between metropolitan Britain and the rest of the country in the context of globalisation is worth reading: Globalisation