Saturday, 1 May 2010

Minor party votes could be important

In what is still a tight contest in Warwick and Leamington, the votes attracted by minor parties could be decisive. Last time they attracted 5.1 per cent of the votes.

My sense of the campaign as a whole, in England at any rate, is that the rise of the Liberal Democrats has blotted out some of the attention that might otherwise have been given to minor parries.

The internal contradictions of BNP policies were exposed when their leader was interviewed on the Campaign Show last night. It doesn't look as if they will win in Barking. The anti-BNP organisation Searchlight thinks their best chance is in Stoke where there has been a local Labour Party split in one of the seats.

I think that the Speaker will hold off Nigel Farrage's challenge for UKIP in Buckingham. I am sceptical whether the Greens will take Brighton (Pavilion).

In Warwick and Leamington, Ian Davison is standing again for the Greens. He has polled respectably in county council elections and some students may support him. I have had two pieces of campaign literature from him which strike a more moderate and reasonable note than some of the statements of the national party. I would forecast a low four figure vote. The interesting question is whether will come ahead of UKIP whose candidate has been parachuted in from Staffordshire.

An independent living in Warwick, Jim Cullinane, is on the ballot paper. Holding a masters' degree in third world politics, he appears to be an anti-politics candidate who states 'This is your opportunity to say "none of the above" without spoiling your ballot paper.' He takes a relatively libertarian line with opposition to excessive regulation. I would expect him to get no more than a few hundred votes.


Anonymous said...

So far on the campaign trail in Warwick and Leamington which party do you think has made the most impact?

Also, which party do you think will end up winning Warwick and Leamington?

Wyn Grant said...

It's difficult to get a clear view of the campaign across the constituency as a whole, but I would say the Conservatives, although possibly because they have more resources. I would expect the Conservatives to win, particularly given trends in the opinion polls.